Categories: Family Office, Financial NewsPublished On: April 5th, 2022Comments Off on Market Update18 min read
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On Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that if needed, it is possible to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes to control inflation. Such aggressive remarks have had a negative impact on the stock market and led to a rapid rise in bond rates.
Even if 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread reverses, recessions can take quite a long time to begin. Based on the previous six recessions since 1980, recessions occurred in 6 to 34 months after the reversal, with an average of 18 months.
U.S. stocks have had positive returns in the following 12 months after a reversal. Historical data shows that all the major indexes (S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000) had a return of at least 8-10%. Tech stocks also had positive returns, but slightly underperformed other sectors.
We previously emphasized that the market low of 2/24 is a strong support, and a rebound can be expected in the next two weeks to one month. Take S&P 500 as an example: the rebound may begin to slow around 4550, and then further observation is needed to see if there is a chance for a continued rise, or a reversal to test the previous low.
Based on risk diversification and the overall view of the market, investors with excessive shareholding should take this opportunity to adjust into more defensive investments.
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