Redfin home price gauge shows weakest annual gains in over a decade

Redfin home price gauge shows weakest annual gains in over a decade
Buyers gained leverage as price growth slowed, but affordability issues persisted

United States home prices inched higher in November, but at the slowest annual pace since 2012, underscoring a market where demand and supply both pulled back and mortgage professionals navigated thinner pipelines rather than a clear correction.

According to Redfin’s latest Home Price Index, national prices rose 0.2% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, slightly below October’s 0.3% gain. On a yearly basis, prices were up 2.6%, down from 2.9% in October.

The report said that “home-price growth has been slowing since the beginning of the year; November’s year-over-year increase is the smallest in records dating back to 2012.”

Market shifts toward buyers, not bargains
Redfin framed the environment as a rare opening for house hunters, even as affordability stays stretched.

“Home-price growth is cooling as the calendar turns to winter, but prices are still rising and they’re still too high for many house hunters,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, said.

“Still, we’re in the midst of the strongest buyer’s market in a decade; even though prices remain high, buyers have a chance to negotiate with sellers and get some concessions. The other bright spot for buyers: We expect wages to grow faster than home prices in 2026, improving affordability and perhaps thawing the housing market.”

The report attributed the slowdown to “many would-be homebuyers” stepping back amid elevated mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty, while many potential sellers also held off listing, keeping prices from falling outright.

Regional winners and losers for price growth
On a monthly basis, prices fell in 11 of the 47 large metros Redfin analyzed. The steepest declines were in Charlotte, NC (-0.9%), Austin, TX (-0.6%) and Cincinnati (-0.6%). Pittsburgh (2.3%), Montgomery County, PA (1.6%) and Chicago (1.3%) posted the largest monthly increases.

Year over year, Chicago (11%), Pittsburgh (10.1%) and New York (9.5%) led price gains, while Austin (-3.8%), Dallas (-2.8%) and Oakland (-2.5%) saw the biggest declines.

The year 2025 ends not with a bust, but with a slower, more negotiable market in which local price trends and borrower income growth matter more than national averages.

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