企業獲利首次衰退，股市債券走勢相反 哪項投資獲利多？

債市放棄樂觀 今年降息無望

最近股票市場以及債券市場對於未來利率的走勢有非常大的歧見，債券市場方面逐漸放棄了之前的樂觀心態，認為聯準會不但會多次升息，而且在2023年看不到降息的可能性。原因是除了我們在兩週之前提到的強勁就業報告之外，另一個原因就是本周公布的消費者物價指數 CPI。上週二公佈的CPI雖然與分析師預期的一致，但是部分媒體其實期望物價看到更多的下跌，所以認為聯準會的確沒有降息的空間。

科技股、虛擬貨幣坐過山車

但股票市場在周四之前完全無視升息的可能性，科技股以及虛擬貨幣都大幅上揚他們認為強勁的經濟數據不會引發聯準會持續升息，但他們卻相信強勁的經濟數據顯示經濟衰退不會發生這樣樂觀的心態。直到週四有兩名聯準會官員各自發表了鷹派的看法之後才得到反轉，而且市場下跌持續到週五的市場。

股市和債市的關係 投資機會在哪？

其實我們看到2022年第四季的企業獲利，很有可能創下2020年第三季以來的首次獲利衰退。而且雖然市場持續樂觀但有越來越多的企業內部人出售股票，在依然認為會有經濟衰退的前提之下，我們對股票市場依然維持比較保守的看法。但最近的市場發展其實對債券的投資比較有利，首先就是我們看到股票以及債券走勢相反的關係，雖然在2022年被打破 但是最近又恢復了，意思就是如果未來股票市場下跌的時候，債券有可能上漲，繼續扮演一個緩衝的角色。另外短天期的6個月美國公債利率一度觸及5%，是2007以來最高的水平。所以雖然股票市場的前景不明，但債券市場依然提供了不錯的投資機會，大家可以參考。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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