泛宇財經速報 貸款資訊知曉 1-9-2023
mortgage
市場周事件 ▷▷▷
1月抵押貸款利率預測
抵押貸款利率可能會在 1 月份小幅上升，達到 2023 年的峰值，然後在今年剩餘時間下降。
如果抵押貸款利率確實在 1 月份上升，他們將這樣做是為了應對兩件事：
居高不下的通貨膨脹率。
不確定美聯儲將在 2 月 1 日結束的下一次貨幣政策會議上做什麼。
隨著通脹下降，抵押貸款利率也應該下降
這一輪通脹從兩個方面影響了購房者。首先，房價上漲速度驚人。然後，抵押貸款利率飆升至 20 年高點。美聯儲的指紋在這兩個事件中無處不在。
快速上漲的房價可以追溯到中央銀行對 COVID-19 大流行開始的反應，當時它在 2020 年 3 月將關鍵的短期利率下調至接近零。美聯儲還開始購買抵押貸款支持證券壓低抵押貸款利率並防止因與大流行病相關的廣泛失業而導致的潛在房地產市場崩盤。由於購房者通過湧入和抬高價格來應對低利率，房地產市場遠沒有崩潰，而是進入了超速狀態。
美聯儲的政策也幫助推高了整體價格。以消費者物價指數衡量的通脹率在 2021 年急劇上升，從 2 月份的不到 2% 上升到年底的 7%，並在 2022 年 6 月繼續上升至 9% 的高位。
央行一直等到 2022 年 3 月才停止購買抵押貸款支持證券並上調聯邦基金利率，讓過度通脹提前了一年。美聯儲采取行動後，抵押貸款利率急劇上升。 2022 年 2 月，即美聯儲首次加息前一個月，30 年期抵押貸款的平均利率為 3.89%。它在 10 月和 11 月升至 7% 以上，然後在今年的最後六週跌破 7%。
隨著通貨膨脹開始放緩，我們應該預計抵押貸款利率也會下降。但到目前為止，他們落後了。抵押貸款利率仍比 6 月份高出四分之三個百分點以上，儘管通脹自 6 月份以來一直在降溫。更高的利率降低了人們的負擔能力，給價格帶來下行壓力。根據全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，由於負擔能力問題和季節性因素（價格通常在 6 月左右達到頂峰並在之後的幾個月下降），現有房屋的中位銷售價格從 7 月到 11 月每個月都在下降。
Daily rate based on: SFR/Primary/LTV60/FICO 780/Purchase
IMPORTANT: Advertised rates were valid and effective as of the date reflected above, are for informational purposes only, and are subject to change without notice.
Loans are subject to credit and collateral approval. Advertised rates are based on a set of loan assumptions including a borrower with excellent credit history and optimal loan characteristics. Your final interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) may differ depending on your individual transaction’s specific characteristics, and certain products may not be available for your situation. Several determining factors include, but are not limited to, the state of the property location, loan amount, documentation type, loan type, occupancy type, property type, loan to value, and credit score.
APR reflects the cost of credit over the term of the loan expressed as an annual rate. For mortgage loans, APR may include the interest rate, discount points (also referred to as “points”), and other charges or fees (such as mortgage insurance and origination fees), but does not necessarily take into account other loan-specific finance charges you may be required to pay.
Golden Star, Inc. dba Transglobal Lending, 185 W. Chestnut Ave., Monrovia, CA 91016, NMLS # 1437002 (www.transgloballending.com). All rights reserved. Equal Opportunity Employer and Equal Housing Lender. All mortgage products are subject to credit property approval. Rates, Program terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Additional conditions, qualifications, and restrictions may apply. This is not an offer for extension of credit or a commitment to lend.
