泛宇財經速報 貸款資訊知曉 3-30-2026

債券價格回檔暗示利率可能下調，但房地產市場仍面臨戰爭帶來的劇烈波動

週一，由於投資者在密集的就業數據公佈前轉向避險資產，美國公債殖利率小幅走低。此舉為受戰爭引發的波動衝擊的抵押貸款市場帶來了短暫的喘息之機。

作為30年期固定抵押貸款的關鍵基準，10年期公債殖利率在早盤交易中跌至4.36%左右，30年期公債殖利率約為4.92%，2年期公債殖利率接近3.86%。

自2月底以來，由於美伊戰爭擾亂能源市場並重塑了對通膨和聯準會政策的預期，殖利率已飆升約0.5個百分點。

德意志銀行分析師在一份報告中指出：“展望未來一周，隨著3月份多項數據的發布，我們應該開始了解這場衝突的經濟後果。這些數據涵蓋了自2月28日罷工開始以來的時期。”

他們強調，JOLTS（就業及勞動力流動調查）、ADP（美國就業發展計畫）和週五的非農就業報告，以及ISM製造業指數，都是檢驗油價上漲是否正在推高通膨和企業成本的早期指標。

分析師表示：“否則，在美國，人們的關注點將集中在油價上漲是否已經開始對企業信心和通膨產生實質影響。”

此前，房地美（Freddie Mac）最新發布的《主要抵押貸款市場調查》顯示，截至2026年3月26日，30年期固定抵押貸款的平均利率為6.38%。這一數字高於一週前的6.22%和一年前的6.65%。

15年期固定利率也從前一週的5.54%和一年前的5.89%上調至5.75%。

今年早些時候，一位策略師警告稱，即使表面市場看似平靜，但「積壓的波動可能會在2026年撼動美國國債市場」。

另一位市場分析師告訴《美國抵押貸款專業人士》雜誌，近期的波動“抑制了人們對5%左右抵押貸款利率的熱情”，削弱了人們對春季購房旺季的預期。

在華盛頓，唐納德·川普總統表示，美國正在「與一個全新的、更合理的政權進行認真磋商，以結束我們在伊朗的軍事行動」。

如果霍爾木茲海峽不能「立即」重新開放，並且「短期內」沒有達成協議，他威脅要「徹底」摧毀伊朗的能源基礎設施，包括哈爾克島。

這些評論，以及有關可能開展地面宣傳活動的準備工作的報道，給債券投資者和對利率敏感的住房專業人士增加了一層不確定性。

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