泛宇財經速報 貸款資訊知曉 6-22-2026

美國住房市場未來十年需求疲軟，MBA研究人員發出警告

MBA最新發布的白皮書警告稱，人口結構變化可能對美國房價構成下行壓力

美國抵押貸款銀行家協會（MBA）發布的一份新白皮書敦促抵押貸款專業人士超越當前的供應短缺，為未來十年住房市場需求根本性疲軟做好準備。

這份題為《住房需求持續放緩的影響》的白皮書於本週發布，探討了自2008年金融危機以來人口趨勢、建築活動和住房負擔能力壓力發生了哪些變化，以及這些變化對未來房價、家庭結構和抵押貸款發放量意味著什麼。

「過去幾年，隨著許多地區的新房供應進入市場，住房需求增長放緩，」總部位於華盛頓特區的美國抵押貸款銀行家協會（MBA）高級副總裁兼首席經濟學家邁克·弗拉坦托尼表示。

「儘管住房可負擔性挑戰依然嚴峻，但MBA的研究強調，我們需要超越當前的市場狀況，深入了解影響住房需求的長期因素。這些發現有助於行業參與者和政策制定者更好地應對未來住房和抵押貸款市場動態的變化。”

從短缺到過剩的風險

該報告追溯了後危機時代千禧世代家庭的強勁增長如何將住房需求推至遠超建設能力的水平，並估計全國住房缺口在150萬至730萬套之間。

疫情期間，在歷史低位抵押貸款利率的刺激下，住房需求飆升，房價和租金也隨之創下新高。同時，建築商，尤其是多戶住宅建築商以及南部和西部地區的建築商，紛紛加大了產能。

正如弗拉坦托尼在對《美國抵押貸款專業人士》雜誌分析美國住房市場前景變化時所說，“在全國越來越多的市場，將會出現買方市場，而非賣方市場。”

到2025年，這些供應將全部進入市場。空置率上升，租金漲幅放緩，待售房屋庫存增加，在陽光地帶的大都會區尤為明顯，這些地區的建築活動最為活躍。

由於收入成長超過了房價和租金的漲幅，住房可負擔性略有改善，但大多數市場的住房成本仍然遠高於疫情前的水平。

未來十年展望

展望未來，該報告指出，人口結構方面的不利因素正在匯聚：人口老化、生育率下降、年輕成年人群體規模縮小以及移民減少，預計這些因素都將在未來十年顯著減緩家庭組建速度。

同時，MBA的研究人員預測，隨著嬰兒潮世代逐漸老化並將現有住房轉移給年輕一代，住房供應將逐步增長。

報告警告說，如果住宅建設持續高位運行，而新家庭組成速度放緩，那麼在某些市場，供應增長可能會超過需求，從而對房價構成下行壓力。

對於一直關注抵押貸款經紀人協會 (MBA) 預測的 2026 年單戶住宅貸款發放量為 2.2 兆美元的經紀人和貸款發起機構而言，這份白皮書增添了更長遠的視角：需求放緩不僅會影響貸款發放量，還會影響借款人的權益積累和信用表現，而這些都是影響美國住房可負擔性長期走勢的關鍵因素。

白皮書由 Fratantoni 與 MBA 副總裁兼副首席經濟學家 Joel Kan、MBA 商業房地產研究副總裁 Judie Ricks 以及美國住房研究所 (RIHA) 執行董事兼 MBA 住房經濟學副總裁 Edward Seiler 共同撰寫。

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