美元貶值該怎麼應對?

Categories: 理財投資, 美國生活, 金融時事Published On: January 6th, 202110.8 min readViews: 15641
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01 美元跟整個市場與全球股市之間關連

當市場樂觀時,投資人可能不會覺得美元很重要。當需分散投資其他高風險的資產,這時候美元通常會偏弱;可是等到市場有什麼風吹草動,他們就會想起來美元是強勢貨幣,為了保本再將其他資產換回美元,這時候美元就會走強。在2020年3月疫情很嚴重,市場大跌的時候,美元在二個星期內其實上漲7%就是個很好的證明。目前美元貶值有很大一部分原因也是投資人極度樂觀造成的。

02 美元是否會失去全球儲備貨幣的地位?

我們都知道美元是全球的儲備貨幣,這也讓美國在舉債上比起其他國家有更大的彈性。但對於美元會失去全球儲備貨幣地位這樣的論調,委婉來說,在我們有生之年碰到美元被其他貨幣取代的機率真的不高。為什麼呢?在討論這個問題的時候,我們第一個就要看什麼貨幣可以取代美元的地位?歐元、日元其實在市場上流通性還不錯,但比起美元還是有相當大的差距。如果認為美國現在負債比例很高或者經濟成長趨緩導緻美元貶值的話,那歐元、日元也有同樣的問題。再來是很多人提到的人民幣,不過人民幣在透明度及全球的信任度上還有待改善的空間。所以一時之間,在市場上要找到可以取代美元地位的貨幣不是那麼容易的。

03 很熱門的cryptocurrency有沒有可能取代美元的地位?

既然其他國家貨幣一時間無法取代美元地位,那現在很夯、很熱門的cryptocurrency (加密貨幣)是否有機會呢?其實很多人喜歡cryptocurrency是因為它波動大、漲幅高,特別是在網上,其實光這一點就讓它很難成為一個支付工具。Bitcoin(比特幣)去年好像從7500塊漲到了32000塊左右,漲的時候大家都很開心,可是如果它從32000, 不要說跌回7500,就跌到15000好了,你覺得大家還很願意拿它去買東西嗎? 所以說它的波動性本身會影響它成為支付工具的一個可能性。但是cryptocurrency在創新層面加上政府的支持是有可能逐漸降低美元作為國際支付工具的比例,當然這最後還是取決於包括美國在內其他國家的金融創新程度。

04 該怎麼面對美元貶值這個現象?

我們可以這樣看,美元現在的貶值,只是一個循環中的一部分而已,有漲有跌,並不代表美元就會喪失它儲備貨幣的地位(也不是貶值)。如果是衣食住行都在美國的朋友,其實不用太過擔心,只要自己的資產報酬能跑贏物價上漲的幅度,你的生活質量就不會受到影響,如果你真的很擔心通貨膨脹的話,可以考慮買一點黃金來分散這個通貨膨脹的風險。如果你是一個高淨值客戶,在很多個不同的地區都有置產的話,我們會建議你應該善用美國這個發達的金融市場來做全球佈局,趁現在美元比較弱的時候將部分的資金轉換成美元,等到市場有個比較大的波動的時候,可以在那個時候再用強勢的美元投資其他高風險的資產。

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