美舉債觸頂 公債投資依然安全嗎？

1、美國的債務達到上限

美國的債務在上週的時候達到之前約定的上限31.4兆或者說 31.4萬億，也就是說，在債務上限提高之前美國政府都不能再舉債借錢。其實提高債務上限只需要國會投票通過，但是因為目前兩黨對於政府的支出有歧見，所以短期內恐怕無法解決這個爭議。

2、最糟的情況為何？

目前財政部是利用了聯邦政府僱員的退休基金來維持政府的運作，預計可以維持到六月。理論上最糟的情況是因為債務上限遲遲沒有提高，所以美國政府無法支付公債的利息造成公債違約，而目前市場的基本假設是美國的公債是全世界最安全的投資，一旦這個基本假設被推翻，將會帶來非常負面的後果。但是為什麼市場目前都沒有把這個風險當一回事呢？因為市場打定主意，認為雖然兩黨彼此叫囂，但最後沒有人敢讓美國政府違約，這也是目前實際政治人物的做法。參眾議院的共和黨領袖都表示不會讓美國違約，目前整體的政治氣氛也是在債務上線提高之前，其他的支出或許可以暫緩支付，但是只有美國公債的利息一定要優先支付，不能違約。

3、美國公債是否還是最安全的投資？

我們也認為美國的公債不會違約，而且是目前最安全的投資。但是對於市場完全無視這個政治事件的風險，我們並沒有如此的樂觀。在2011年美國同樣面對債務上限爭議時，標普500下跌了超過10%波動率指數也就是恐慌指數大幅上升，而長天期的公債以及黃金都有不錯的表現。特別是在現在，我們看到公佈的零售數據並不理想，顯示經濟活動開始趨緩，而股市仍然沒有充分反映經濟衰退帶來的風險，之前沒有見好就收的投機型投資，依然可以把握反彈的機會獲利了結。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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