財經零距離 – 1/08/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場上漲，市場原本預期喬治亞州的參議員重新選舉共和黨贏面較大，也有分析師擔心民主黨贏得參議院後將加稅，對市場不利。但在民主黨贏得選舉後，市場轉向樂觀，認為更大規模的紓困方案(包括每人$2,000的補助)將持續維持經濟動能，等待疫苗全面施打後經濟就可恢復正常。
- 我們過去多次強調要正確預測事件的困難程度，而要正確預測市場對事件的反應更不容易，這次的參議員選舉再次證明這個觀點。
- 在民主黨拿下參議院後，市場預期將有更大規模的紓困方案:
- 在預期財政赤字擴大下，美國10年期公債殖利率突破1%，創下三月以來新高。再加上預期聯準會不會調升短期利率，高利差將對銀行股有利，而區域型銀行未來受民主黨政府法令規範風險較小，所以表現優於大型銀行。
- 大規模的紓困方案對傳統企業比重較高的道瓊工業指數有正面幫助。
- 但市場擔心民主黨政府將對科技業下手，所以納斯達克綜合指數在消息公布當天表現不佳，但隔天又在市場的樂觀情緒下大漲。
- 另一方面，新紓困方案可能強化對各州及地方政府的援助，市政債券(municipal bond)的風險降低。
- 但市場普遍認為拜登政府不會加稅，我們認為這個觀點略嫌樂觀。
- 部分分析師認為拜登的當務之急是通過紓困方案及基礎建設法案，加稅不會是重點。
- 但共和黨現在已不是執政黨，在沒有明顯支持經濟成長的誘因下，共和黨可能轉向強調撙節開支，拜登也許不需要花費太多的政治資本就能讓國會通過加稅。
- 在市場處於高點且極度樂觀的情況下，任何出乎意料的負面消息都有可能引發市場下跌。
2. 週五公布的十二月就業報告顯示就業人口減少14萬人，此外，這也是連續第六個月就業人口較前月成長趨緩，反映新一波疫情及管制措施對經濟活動，特別是餐飲、住宿等服務業有重大影響。
3. 沙烏地阿拉伯出人意料地減產石油以支撐油價，部分分析師擔心這反映OPEC預期原油需求將大幅減少，所以預先減產。
4. 1/6在華盛頓哥倫比亞特區的事件雖然引發許多政治上的討論，但在經濟上沒有長遠的影響，此外，這個單一事件也沒有對美國的金融體系產生任何傷害，所以市場並未作出太大反應。
【疫情更新】
- 全球疫情持續惡化，包括英國、日本、德國、南韓、印尼在內的國家採取更嚴格的管制措施。中國靠近北京的石家莊出現200個確診病例後封城。
【救市措施】
- 市場預期將有更大規模的救市措施，目前尚未公布更多細節。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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