財經零距離 – 1/13/2023
admin
SHARE
【市場更新】
1.本週公布的十二月消費者物價指數較前一年度同期上漲6.5%，連續六個月上升速度趨緩。市場興奮地認為聯準會一定會放緩升息的腳步，甚至降息，帶動市場進一步的上漲。
- 市場強碰聯準會: 聯準會官員在之後幾天的說法不一，有人認為聯準會基本利率應該要超過5%，有人認為應該停在4.25%~4.5%區間，但不管那一個都高於目前水準。可以說聯準會的態度是持續升息，只是對於升息幅度有不同意見。而針對市場不相信聯準會這件事，聯準會官員Neel Kashkari半開玩笑地說，市場想要挑戰聯準會，但他很確定市場一定會賭輸。
- 聯準會仍在合理化升息: 其實我們看到聯準會正忽視物價受控制的組成項目，企圖用客製化的指數來證明通貨膨脹還沒受控制，以合理化升息的決定。所以即使物價指數是朝對的方向前進，聯準會可能依然不會立即暫停升息或者降息。有分析師甚至預期聯準會不樂見市場的樂觀心態，很有可能升息0.5%。
- 市場過度樂觀是更大隱憂: 除了市場強碰聯準會，短期內市場碰到的另一個問題是市場過度樂觀，Bed, Bath & Beyond傳出可能宣告破產，但五天內股價漲了300%，讓我們有重見GameStop狂熱的感覺。而波動率指數VIX(也被稱為恐慌指數)自12月初後再度跌破20，顯示投資人十分地安逸。
- 投機型的投資應見好就收: 在去年12月VIX跌破20後，VIX迅速上升，股價下跌。特別是標普500已經再次挑戰200日均線失敗，目前看來短期內股市的上檔空間有限，但下檔風險大，建議投機型的投資見好就收。
- 美元是值得注意的標的: 美元在過去一段時間隨著股市穩定貶值，可能已經接近這一波的谷底，有美元需求的投資人可以開始考慮買進美元。
2. 另一個市場浮現的奇妙現象是大家高喊經濟衰退，但是股市一片欣欣向榮。也有部分人士原本認為會有2023會有經濟衰退，但在今年突然縮手，認為仍會軟著陸(諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Paul Krugman)或是即使經濟衰退也不會太嚴重(JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon)，調查也顯示許多CEO表示雖然他們預期經濟衰退將發生，但不會歷時太長，所以並沒有大規模裁員的計畫(還是有企業裁員，但規模沒有想像中大)。
- 經濟衰退照道理不會發生在大家都預期經濟衰退會發生的時候，這是我們在預期今年會發生經濟衰退的最大矛盾點，所以看到市場上其實並沒有普遍相信經濟衰退發生，反而是增強了我們的信心。
- 同樣的，之後最有可能發生的情境是在經濟衰退沒有被宣布前，聯準會即宣布降息，市場一片歡欣鼓舞，認為已不存在經濟衰退的風險，之後在企業獲利衰退的消息下，重創投資人信心。這也是為什麼我們建議今年採取較防禦型股票投資的原因。
【疫情更新】
中國開放對自身及全球經濟的影響持續引發討論，部分人士擔心中國勞工將面臨裁員、欠薪等不確定因素，而之前嚴格的防疫政策已影響地方政府的財政狀況。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
