財經零距離 – 1/14/2022
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【市場更新】
1.在上週三市場感受到聯準會有可能加快升息以及減少在市場買回金融資產下，科技股帶動市場大跌，但在短期超跌，而且週二聯準會主席Jerome Powell在國會的發言即使經過市場的嚴格檢視也沒有負面訊息，所以本週市場開始反彈。
- 雖然美國經濟這兩年表現不錯，但另一個主要推動市場的力量是資金，或者說是熱錢，聯準會可能加快升息的消息當然會影響市場的資金以及流動性，特別是越具投機性質或是越依賴未來成長前景的股票受影響越大。從ARKK ETF相較於標普500在過去兩年的走勢可以發現，ARKK的表現從去年11月開始大幅的落後標普500，跟通貨膨脹以及市場對加息的恐懼有明顯的關係。
- 而聯準會主席Jerome Powell在週二國會上的發言相對比較平穩，雖然有提到必要時必需升息以控制通貨膨脹，但並沒有更多的壞消息，所以市場得到緩和。
- 簡單來說，聯準會未來是否加息很大一部分取決於未來通貨膨脹是否受控制，如果通貨膨脹嚴重，聯準會快速大幅升息，對整體市場、特別是成長股有負面影響。相對而言，在最理想的狀況下，如果聯準會能夠僅用喊話的方式控制民眾對物價上漲的心理，再加上全球疫情能受控制、供應鍊不受影響，也許就沒有這麼快升息的必要。
- 週三早上公布的物價指數可以從不同的角度觀察，雖然美國的消費者物價指數上漲7%，再次創下近四十年來新高，但中國生產者物價指數則是較上個月下滑，而歷史數據顯示兩者有超過八成的相關性，所以有可能美國的物價上漲趨勢也將逐漸緩和。
- 此外，需求降低也可能導致物價上漲趨緩，週五公布的十二月美國零售業數據衰退，除了可能是Omicron造成的短期影響外，也有可能反映民眾之前取得的救助金無法繼續推動民間消費成長。民間消費是否趨緩是我們認為今年最值得關注的趨勢之一，有興趣的讀者可以參考2021年12月15日的股動財富影片 https://youtu.be/xYhdhCHdeqg
- 雖然我們長期認為通貨膨脹並沒有一般媒體宣傳的如此嚴重，但疫情永遠是個不確定因素。中國的零容忍政策正在面對Omicron的新一波考驗，也進一步影響到中國工廠及港口的運作，如果演變成長期停工，通貨膨脹恐怕將持續延燒。
，但中國生產者物價指數則是較上個月下滑，而歷史數據顯示兩者有超過八成的相關性，所以有可能美國的物價上漲趨勢也將逐漸緩和。2.政府加稅已經是相當長一段時間沒有提及的話題，但近來的通貨膨脹也間接的將政府加稅、特別是企業稅拉上檯面。在通貨膨脹期間部分人士將物價上漲歸因於企業壟斷，如果在未來幾週企業公布的營運結果顯示獲利大幅成長，可能進一步提高企業加稅的聲浪。
【疫情更新】
中國疫情延燒至天津。美國紐約的Omicron疫情看來已過高峰。而通常疫情波段較美國提早數月的英國也顯示每日新增確診人數開始趨緩。新加坡運輸部長表示該國目標是重啟邊界並且開放更多國家旅客可以入境免隔離。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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