財經零距離 – 1/15/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場小跌，即使市場估值過高且過度樂觀，但並無特殊事件引發市場持續攀升或崩跌。
- 在拜登宣布大規模紓困方案後市場不漲反跌，要留心是否又出現「在謠言時買進，在成真時賣出」(buy the rumor; sell the news)的狀況。
2. 週三公布的12月消費者物價指數較11月上升0.4%，較2019年12月上升1.4%，顯示目前並沒有嚴重的通貨膨脹。
- 我們經常聽到有人認為他看到的東西都在漲，怎麼可能沒有通貨膨脹。事實上，政府的統計數據雖然不完美，但人們往往以偏概全，將焦點只集中在部分上漲的商品，忽視其他物價持平或下跌的部分，所以在印象中過度放大物價上漲的幅度。
- 除了不是所有商品都上漲外，消費者物價指數有60%決定於服務業，在現在疫情的影響下，服務業並沒有大幅的價格上漲，連帶拉低了整體物價上漲的幅度。
3. 調查顯示78%的民眾在拿到之前$600紓困方案支票後將會部分用來支付公用事業(水、電、瓦斯)帳單，代表公用事業在疫情中還是相對不受影響的產業，在股市一片樂觀聲中可以作為一個較保守的避險標的。在大部分分析師都看壞該產業，且之前股價因為利率上升而下跌的情況下，該產業更具吸引力。(image 1; Source: The Daily Shot)
4. 首次申請失業救濟人數跳升至965,000，創下八月以來最高數字，除了疫情的負面影響外，之前通過的$9千億紓困方案提供的失業救濟也可能鼓勵部分民眾領取失業救濟而不工作。
5. 12月零售數據較11月衰退1.9%，創下連續三個月衰退，顯示2020年初紓困方案已無法持續擴張民間消費。剛發放的每人$600及未來可能通過的每人$1,400現金有望繼續維持民間消費。
【疫情更新】
1. 疫情持續擴散，中國封城區域增加，並且在去年五月後首次出現死亡案例…
2. …但還是有一些好消息:
- 美國因疫情住院人數降低 (image 2; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 施打疫苗速度加快 (image 3; Source: The Daily Shot)
【救市措施】
- 總統當選人拜登公布新一波紓困方案的細節，新一波紓困方案金額預計為2兆，內容包括每人$1,400的現金支付、延長失業補助以及對地方政府的資助。此外，拜登希望能與共和黨合作達成共識，避免僅透過預算協議程序、民主黨在參議院的50票通過紓困方案。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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