財經零距離 – 1/20/2023
Betty Shih
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【市場更新】
- 美國的債務在週四時達到之前設定的上限$31.4兆(萬億), 意味著債務上限提高前不能再舉債借錢，其實提高債務上限只需要國會投票通過，但因為兩黨對於政府支出有歧見，所以目前的僵局短期內恐怕無法解決。財政部動用聯邦雇員退休基金維持聯邦政府運作，預計可以持續到六月。
- 理論上最糟的情況是因為債務上限遲遲沒有提高，美國政府無法支付公債利息而違約，而美國公債一向被市場視為最安全的投資，違約等同推翻了目前全球金融體系的基本假設，照道理是個很負面的消息。
- 但市場打定主意認為雖然兩黨目前互相叫囂，但沒有人敢讓美國違約。這也是實際上政治人物的態度，共和黨參眾議院的領袖都表示不會讓美國債務違約，整體的氣氛也是在債務上限通過前，其他支出或許可以暫停支付，但一定要優先付息。
- 我們也認為美國公債不會違約，公債依然是安全的投資，但是對於市場完全無視這個政治事件的風險，我們並沒有如此樂觀。在2011年美國同樣面對債務上限爭議時，標普500下跌超過10%，而且波動率指數、也就是恐慌指數大幅上升，相對地黃金及長天期公債都有不錯的表現。特別是我們看到本週公布的美國零售數據、工業生產都不理想，顯示經濟活動逐漸趨緩，而股市仍然沒有充分反應經濟衰退風險，之前如果沒有見好就收的投機型投資，還是可以考慮利用反彈的機會獲利了結。
- 傳統被奉為圭臬的60%股票加40%債券的投資組合因為2022年的糟糕表現而多次被判定「60/40已死」，包括Blackrock在內的許多金融機構認為債券利率目前極具吸引力，建議投資組合的債券比例應高於股票(Blackrock的建議的35%股票加65%債券)，而高盛則認為任何投資組合都有遭遇逆風的時候，認為應堅持60/40。
- 我們管理的投資組合一向包含股票及債券外的其他資產，像是黃金、大宗商品、不動產投資信託(REIT)、甚至選擇權/期權。
- 對於一般民眾而言，股票加債券已經是個不錯的選擇，至少遠勝於100%股票帶來的波動風險。
- 至於60/40還是35/65其實是比較枝微末節的問題，我們的看法是60/40依然是長期來看理想的投資組合，但在短期內，債券表現的確可能比股票亮眼，不妨適度提高債券比例。
【疫情更新】
年關將至，部分人士擔心中國有可能再現一波疫情潮。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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