財經零距離 – 1/22/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 市場持續上漲，Citi恐慌/樂觀指數創下歷史新高(極度樂觀)(image 1; Source: The Boock Report)
2. 拜登在星期三就職後立即簽署下列行政命令。從目前的行政命令及內閣人選可以看出未來政府將會重新重視法令遵循，市場目前無視法令遵循將提高企業成本、影響獲利的風險。
- 為控制疫情在聯邦財產上強制戴口罩。
- 延長禁止驅逐未按時交租的房客至3/31，學生貸款至9/30前免還款。
- 重新參與巴黎氣候協定、停止美國脫離WHO、取消興建Keystone XL管線的許可。
3. 中國是少數在疫情下仍能維持經濟成長的國家，但其經濟成長主要得利於出口至歐美國家，民間消費在2020年較前一年度衰退3.9%。
- 歐美在疫情封鎖下，民間消費由服務業(旅行餐飲)轉為購買商品，對製造業及出口導向國家有利。
- 但如果市場預期疫苗效果成真，今年下半年疫情受到控制，可預期歐美民間消費將轉向服務業支出為主，目前製造業導向國家經濟優於服務業導向國家的情況可能反轉。如果疫情持續惡化，製造業導向國家只能依賴歐美國家持續紓困維持民間消費及購買外國商品。
- 此外，這個數據也顯示了「中國龐大的內需機器一旦啟動，…」跟「美元將喪失儲備貨幣地位」的宣傳用語一樣，雖然經常被引用，但至少目前是沒有實證支持的。(關於美元的討論可以看之前的財經零距離文章或是股動財富在Youtube Channel的短片)。
【疫情更新】
1. 因應惡化的疫情，各國採取更嚴格的管制措施，但包括英國在內的部分國家民眾已開始疲乏，不再嚴格遵守政府規定。
2. 市場對疫苗的樂觀態度逐漸屈服於施打速度過慢的現實，即使是拜登提出的100日內施打1億劑也被認為速度上不足以控制疫情。
【救市措施】
新紓困方案暫無新進展，但調查顯示超過1/3的美國民眾在收到每人$1,400的補助後將用來繳帳單，10%的民眾將購買民生必需品，只有3%的民眾將購買包括電子用品在內的非民生必需品。(image 2; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 短期內”What we need”還是比”What we want”更重要。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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