財經零距離 – 1/27/2023

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: January 27th, 202311.4 min readViews: 28249
Evelle Dai
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【市場更新】

1. 隨著公司陸續公布上一季的財報及未來展望,我們發現一個奇妙的現象,就是分析師對企業獲利的展望漸趨保守,但股價持續攀升(image 1),

標普500在本週創下今年的新高。另外我們看到比特幣由谷底上漲50%,還有之前被炒作的Bed, Bath, and Beyonds發生債務違約,可能發生資不抵債。所以我們持續認為高風險的投資應該要考慮獲利了結,至於獲利了結的資金應該怎麼處理?我們有以下兩個建議:

  • 第一個,可以考慮轉進長天期的債券。如上週所述,雖然股票加債券的投資組合因為2022年的糟糕表現而多次被判定不再適用,但其實對於一般民眾而言,股票加債券仍是不錯的選擇,至少遠勝於100%股票帶來的波動風險。再加上目前債券利率極具吸引力,在短期內,債券表現甚至可能比股票亮眼,不妨適度提高債券比例。
  • 另一個,則是可以將適當比例的資金保留在現金,等待機會。其實因為升息的關係,不需要鎖半年、一年的定存,一樣可以享受3.5%~4%的現金收益,但為什麼很多大銀行給的利率還是很低呢?(image 2 source: The Wall Street Journal)

其實只是因為大銀行不需要那麼多的存款而已。我們看到越來越多高淨值客戶因為銀行給的利息低,將銀行的活期存款移到短天期公債或是其他提供高利的銀行。只要慎選有參加FDIC的金融機構或是美國政府擔保的公債,一樣可以無風險地等待重新投入市場的機會。

2. 市場持續關注下週聯準會的升息幅度及提示未來政策走向,市場預期聯準會僅會升息0.25%。雖然我們與市場看法一致,認為今年下半年會開始降息,但聯準會如果持續釋放強勢升息的訊息仍有可能對市場造成劇烈的短期波動。而我們仍要強調:聯準會開始降息通常不是股市的谷底,而且聯準會降息從來沒有成功阻止過經濟衰退發生。

3. 新聞報導Founders Fund在2022年四月出清幾乎全部持有的虛擬貨幣,而其創辦人Peter Thiel接近同時在Miami的虛擬貨幣大會上暢談比特幣的遠大前景,並且認為其價格有可能上漲100倍,以當時$40,000的價格計算為$4,000,000。

  • Peter Thiel未必是有意要割投資人韭菜,但對當時相信他的人來說當然不是多愉快的事。無論如何,在作任何投資決策前一定要獨立判斷,不要人云亦云。更重要的是不可以只是「聽其言」,還要「觀其行」。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗,專業的六大管理板塊,橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市,是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡,讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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