財經零距離 – 1/28/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 本週的市場波動依然很大，週一的標普500一度下跌超過4%，但最後是以上漲作收，而且上漲本身沒有任何基本面可以解釋，這也是為什麼我們之前提到在市場沒有過度樂觀、而且短期超賣的情況下，有可能會出現短期的反彈。(美國個人投資人協會(AAII)公布的美國散戶情緒指數
(Source: YCharts)
顯示散戶已經創下2013年以來最高的緊張程度。)
- 很多讀者一定想問短期反彈是不是個好的加碼進場時機?首先，雖然過去兩年的情況給人一種逢低買進一定賺錢的錯覺，但長期來看只有少數的反彈會是很好的買點，所以通常我們不會建議逢低加碼。另外，因為股市當天下跌4%最後收漲極為罕見，有人整理之後發現過去五次同樣情況下
(Source: Bloomberg)
- ，未來一個月報酬皆為負數，即使到了三個月後也有八成的機率虧錢。雖然樣本量很小，但也可以給大家一個參考，輔助說明為何反彈加碼要很謹慎。
- 至於怎麼樣的資產在股市波動較大甚至是潛在熊市時表現較為傑出?請參考本週的股動財富影片(https://youtu.be/5bro5CAJ-OE)
2. 週三聯準會主席Jerome Powell在記者會上的發言表現出快速升息企圖，他再次強調目前最大的風險來自於通貨膨脹，企圖通過升息來控制消費者對商品的需求以降低物價，目前看來三月升息已是在所難免。
- 不論在目前的狀況下升息控制通貨膨脹是否有用(我們覺得沒用，但這不是重點，因為是聯準會決定貨幣政策，而不是我們或任何經濟學家)，但Powell快速升息的態度已讓某些經濟學家擔心將引發經濟衰退。我們建議可以觀察美國十年期及兩年期公債的利差，該利差在1980年來的六次經濟衰退前皆反轉為負值(也就是說兩年期公債利率高於十年期公債利率)。目前該利差為0.63%，如果照市場普遍預期今年將升息四次共1%，則利差很可能反轉，有可能預告下一次全球經濟衰退的到來。
(image 3; Source: Ycharts)
- 聯準會的政策隨時有可能依經濟及市場狀況改變，2018年的市場大跌就曾經引發Jerome Powell的升息大轉彎。以美國目前的情況來看，聯準會對經濟有足夠的信心認為可以升息控制物價但不致引發經濟衰退，而相形之下可以容忍市場比較大幅的跌幅，但當市場下跌到達可能引發經濟衰退疑慮時，聯準會隨時有可能暫停升息。這也是我們為何一直強調要有完整的投資組合靈活應對各種狀況，而非全進全出。
3. 中國滬深300指數自高點下跌超過20%，進入熊市，與今年年初許多分析師看多的預期大相逕庭。中國資產可以是全球金融資產配置下的一部分，但任何單一押注的集中投資都將承受相對應的波動風險，不應該單純因為美國的市場下跌就認為包括中國在內的其他國家一定有利可圖。
【疫情更新】
- 丹麥預計於下週取消針對疫情一切的限制措施並認定冠狀病毒不再對社會產生威脅。香港確診案例創一年來新高，歐洲商務協會預測香港與外國地區直到2024年才會恢復正常往來，最有可能的情境是中國自行研發出mRNA疫苗供14億人口使用。美國確診病例下降。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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