財經零距離 – 1/6/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 新的一年剛開始，聯準會繼續潑了市場一盆冷水。週三公布的聯準會會議記錄再次顯示聯準會將維持高利率直到通貨膨脹受控制，而且2023年不會降息。而一向被視為聯準會最鴿派的聯準會官員Neel Kashkari在別的場合表示，雖然他認為通貨膨脹逐漸受到控制，他還是認為應持續升息直到大家有信心通貨膨脹真的受控制為止，並認為聯準會資金利率應該再上升一個百分點。很有趣的一點是，市場似乎沒有把聯準會的警告當一回事，市場的預估是最快今年七月就有可能降息。除了因為之前聯準會的確有出爾反爾的記錄外，另一個是市場上越來越多人相信通貨膨脹已經過了高峰。
- 雖然很高興看到更多人認同我們一直抱持著通膨已過高峰的看法，我們的評估也認為聯準會今年一定會暫停升息，甚至會降息，但是降息對市場的影響我們並不樂觀。
- 通常降息發生在經濟表現不佳、企業獲利下降的環境，很難期待股市會有太好的表現。
- 我們預期今年的短天期公債表現依然會相對亮眼，隨著經濟衰退、聯準會降息，長天期公債將會翻身。
- 至於股票市場，不乏反彈的機會，甚至有反彈會讓大家覺得我們已經避開了經濟衰退的錯覺，但在所有人都相信經濟衰退已經到來前，我們不會過度樂觀，也不建議過度積極的操作。
2. 特斯拉延續去年的跌勢，在前一季交車數創新高但不如市場預期的情況下，1/3當天下跌超過12%。
- 特斯拉的主要問題還是”期望越高，失望越大”，再加上近期CEO Elon Musk在新聞媒體的表現給了市場出售的正當理由。
- 期望高：在2020~2021期間，特斯拉總共上漲了1100%，對大部分人來說特斯拉並不是間車廠，而是科技公司，有無限的潛力，值得如此高的估值。
- 失望大：特斯拉已連續三季交車數低於分析師預期，再加上各大車廠紛紛推出電動車競爭，特別在特斯拉寄於重望的中國市場競爭格外激烈。而Elon Musk因推特鬧出的風風雨雨對特斯拉的股價沒有任何幫助。
- “民意如流水”，負面消息不代表特斯拉是不好的公司或不好的股票: 過去幾年市場上也有性能很不錯的電動車，但在Elon Musk的個人光環下，這些競爭者都沒被當回事。在許多負面消息纏身的現在，競爭者突然就變的重要起來。持平而論，特斯拉的產品還是會有一定的需求，在價格合理時，特斯拉的股票也可能極具吸引力
- 其他影響: 新聞報導特斯拉股價的快速下跌可能讓韓國價值一億五千七百萬美元連結標的為特斯拉的結構型商品遭受損失。我們要持續強調結構型商品可以帶給投資人適當的報酬，但投資人一定要了解相對應的風險，不要錯誤地認為所有結構型商品都是保本保息。
3. Blackstone的非公開交易REIT(BREIT)接受加州大學系統$40億美金的投資，條件是加州大學六年內不得贖回該投資，但如果六年後年化報酬率未達每年11.25%，Blackstone在$10億美元的上限內需補足差額。
- Blackstone自然是希望能夠利用大型機構投資人的投資再加上自己最多願意損失$10億美元的條件來重振投資人對BREIT的信心，我們也相信BREIT的標的投資有一定的基本面支持。
- 但這樣的協議令人想起2008年巴菲特投資高盛的情況，可能顯示資本市場投資人投資的意願有所降低，對整體市場並不算是太正面的消息。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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