財經零距離 – 1/7/2022

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: January 7th, 202221.7 min readViews: 23804

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【市場更新】

1.在聯準會公布的上月會議記錄顯示聯準會可能會在三月就會升息以及減少在市場買回金融資產下，市場週三大跌，科技股所受影響最大，主要投資高成長科技類股的ARKK ETF週三當日下跌7.1%，是該ETF自2020年九月以來的最大跌幅。ARKK在2020年回報超過150%，2021年下跌23.59%，2022年至今尚待觀察，除了ETF本身外，許多以ARKK為標的的結構型商品也可能受到衝擊。

科技股的下跌除了上述原因外，高盛的機構經紀部門彙總資料發現對沖基金(hedge funds)自去年十二月開始就開始出售高成長、高估值股票，今年開始更是加快速度拋售軟體及晶片製造業股票。
伴隨著股價下跌的是債券價格也開始下跌，聯準會可能加速升息的消息導致美國公債利率跳升，帶動全球債券市場下跌。傳統認為股票跌、債券漲的避險效果未必每次都能發揮效果。

2. 過往經驗顯示，2022年的股票波動可能會遠大於2021，而且雖仍有高機率能在股票市場獲利，但可能無法再現2021的高報酬，完整的資產配置至為重要。

標普500在2021年最大跌幅僅為5%，但統計顯示在標普500前一年度的跌幅小於6%的情況下，當年度期間股市的最大跌幅平均為13%，雖然年平均報酬率仍為正數，但平均僅為7%。年度報酬7%及最大年中跌幅13%長期來看仍然是相當不錯的結果，但如果期待2022年能重現2021年的高報酬、低波動恐怕就要失望了。
2021年股市的優異表現可能讓許多人產生只要持有股票就好的錯覺，但絕大部分投資人無法承擔100%股票投資組合帶來的市場波動，完整的資產配置仍是確保投資人不會因為情緒因素買高賣低的關鍵因素。
對一般人而言股票加債券可以簡單有效的分散風險: 雖然之前提到今年年初出現股債齊跌的情況，但長期、特別是在經濟衰退的情況下，品質較佳的債券(例如美國公債、投資等級公司債)仍然可以在股票市場下跌時提供一定程度的緩衝，非常適合投資金額較小的一般投資人。
想要進一步分散風險的投資人可以請專業經理人量身訂製、進行全球金融資產配置: 有需要更進一步分散風險的投資人，不妨請專業經理人為你設計更完整的投資組合，除了傳統的股票、債券之外，黃金、大宗商品、不動產都可以利用ETF來投資，全球金融資產配置不再是專屬於超高淨值客戶的工具。此外專業經理人可能還有其他工具，例如利用量化規則調整部位以進一步降低風險，也是專業經理人可以進一步提供價值的地方。

3.通貨膨脹可能已過高峰，那些產業將受益於物價上漲趨緩?請見1月5日TransGlobal TV的股動財富 https://youtu.be/VQhRlmP8dQc

【疫情更新】

中國西安受Omicron影響持續封城，包括德、法在內的歐洲各國提高對民眾活動的限制。美國確診新高，但重症及死亡人數並未明顯增加。目前研究顯示Omicron雖然傳染力強，但症狀較為輕微。在世界各國逐漸轉向如何在不影響經濟活動控制疫情的情況下，包括中國在內的少數國家是否能持續堅持零確診政策值得關注。

【救市措施】

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TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.