財經零距離 – 10/15/2021
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【市場更新】
- 本週股市上揚，標普500的反彈可能已觸及這波上檔的短期壓力。延續前兩週的看法，反彈之後市場是否能再創新高或是跌破這段時間的低點視疫情下的經濟表現而定，我們依然認為未來的經濟表現恐怕沒有市場估計的如此樂觀。
- 全球供應鍊持續受到影響，美國白宮在出手協調如何改善狀況的同時，也警告美國民眾聖誕假期期間商品可能變貴或是可能買不到部分商品。佔全美40%進口量的洛杉磯港及長灘港即使24小時不停工裝缷貨物，希望能緩解供應鍊阻塞的問題。
- 隨著能源緊缺、供應鍊阻塞的問題不見緩解，越來越多人相信通貨膨脹不再是暫時現象，甚至認為聯準會會升息以控制通貨膨脹。(雖然不是本文重點，但歐洲、中國能源緊缺問題未顯著改善，印度、中國煤庫存創新低
(Source: The Daily Shot)，中國煤價也迭創新高(Source: The Daily Shot)，有興趣的讀者可以參閱上週的財經零距離。) - 我們認為最可能的情境是不會有長期的通貨膨脹，當供應鍊恢復正常後，物價上漲也會逐漸趨緩: 九月的消費者物價指數較前月上升0.4%看來很驚人，但排除食物上漲0.9%及能源上漲1.3%後，核心的消費者物價指數(也就是比較不受短期波動影響的物價指數)只上漲0.2%。簡單來說，物價上漲集中在少數受疫情影響的項目，整體物價上漲的趨勢並不明顯。
- 疫情的不確定因素可能導致物價上漲同時經濟衰退的停滯性通膨(stagflation)，但機率不高: 如果疫情持續衝擊商品的供給，而商品的需求短時間內沒有減少(例如政府的紓困金或是失業津貼讓消費者暫時有能力持續購買商品)，有可能會造成短時間的停滯性通膨，除了可能性不高外，嚴格說來，停滯性通膨指的是一段長期間的物價上漲及經濟成長趨緩，而不是幾個月或季的情況而已。
- 聯準會升息無法解決因供應鍊出問題造成的物價上漲: 傳統上認為升息可以抑制通貨膨脹是因為常見的物價上漲是因為景氣過熱造成，升息可以使經濟活動降溫，減緩物價上漲的速度。但供應鍊出問題造成的物價上漲只能由解決供應鍊問題著手(例如由要求港口不停工或是改變能源政策避免能源緊缺)，升息無法解決問題。不過這並不是我們的重點，因為重點永遠是聯準會「會不會」升息，而不是聯準會「該不該」升息。
- 隨著能源緊缺、供應鍊阻塞的問題不見緩解，越來越多人相信通貨膨脹不再是暫時現象，甚至認為聯準會會升息以控制通貨膨脹。(雖然不是本文重點，但歐洲、中國能源緊缺問題未顯著改善，印度、中國煤庫存創新低
- 恒大的海外債券持有人表達擔心未來恒大償債時將以本國人為優先、忽視原本的清償順序。恒大自九月底止已三次未按期支付利息。另一方面，中國另一房地產開發公司當代置業申請延期償付債券。
- 據估計，中國的九月房屋銷售較去年同期衰遏36%(前100大房地產公司數據)，對一向以房地產為火車頭的中國經濟影響值得觀察。另一方面，對中國的外國投資人(特別是西方國家)來說，未來可能需要更高的風險貼水(risk premium)以應對他們不熟悉的中國投資環境。
(Source: The Daily Shot)，中國煤價也迭創新高
(Source: The Daily Shot)，有興趣的讀者可以參閱上週的財經零距離。)
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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