財經零距離 – 10/22/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 美股本週持續上揚，標普500及道瓊工業指數皆創歷史新高，雖然與我們之前的預期不一致(之前預期會先破十月初以來的低點)，但我們維持之前的看法，短期上檔有限，而下檔風險較大，建議還是趁反彈時，部分獲利了結，適當地將部位調整到防禦型的配置。
2. 中國公布的第三季經濟成長率低於預期，僅成長4.9%(年化)，是1990年以來除疫情期間外最低的數據。每月公布的經濟數據顯示零售數據強勁，但不動產投資衰退，且能源密集產業的生產趨緩。另一方面，恒大預計出售$26兆資產的計畫破局，進一步提高正式債務違約的可能性(其最後一刻支付美元債券利息成功地避免了立即的違約)。其他的不動產開發公司也紛紛傳出債務違約、信用評等降或是債券價格大幅下跌的新聞。中國九月房價較八月下跌，是2015年以來首見。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 除了如預期的三線城市房價的跌幅最大外，連一線城市的北京、上海、深圳及廣州也開始跌價，部分分析師擔心這可能是中國房地產跌價的開始。地方政府也採取補助或是禁止惡性削價的方式以穩定房價。企圖在抑制房價上漲及避免房市崩跌中取得平衡。
- 中國在第三季遇到了天災問題，再加上其獨樹一幟的疫情零容忍政策，所以即使中國經濟成長不如預期，也很難據此推斷其他國家的經濟成長趨勢…
- …但中國未來的經濟成長的確充滿了許多不確定性，也可能影響全球經濟。目前大宗商品在供應鍊緊張、電價上漲部分停產的情況下價格依然處於高位，但如果中國成長趨緩、對大宗商品需求降低，自然對其價格會有衝擊。
3. Zillow宣布今年將不再買進房屋以供炒房(house-flipping)之用，主要原因是因缺乏工人裝修之前已買進的房屋。
- Zillow炒房的交易量並不足以對市場產生重大影響，整體房價本身也不會僅因此消息而下跌。但上漲的原物料及缺乏工人都會影響炒房的獲利率，反映整體房市，特別是投機型炒房的風險。
4. 在溫和派民主黨員堅持下，拜登總統提議將$3.5兆的人力資源基礎建設法案減碼至$1.9兆。
【疫情更新】
- 英國確診人數創三個月來新高，部分專家建議盡速釐清是否有新變種誕生。紐西蘭原本預期將放棄零容忍政策，但在確診人數破新高後，決定持續嚴格的封鎖政策。
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