財經零距離 – 10/28/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 本週科技股公布的上季獲利及未來展望不佳，拖累大盤的表現，但整體仍以上漲作收。受到整體IT以及廣告支出全面減少，Microsoft及Google都表現不佳。臉書週三公布的獲利數字更不理想，隔天股價下跌近25%，今年至今已下跌70%。Amazon也對今年假期的銷售金額沒有太大的期望，週四公布後股價一度下跌20%。即使美國強調要扶植半導體產業，產業龍頭Intel強調大幅裁員、撙節開支，並且大幅調降未來的營收預期。整體來看，只有蘋果表現稍好。
- 過去兩年許多人在看好科技股時，經常強調科技是未來的主流，科技業，特別是FAANG這些科技龍頭是不受景氣影響，但事實上科技業也無法免疫於整體經濟趨緩。
- 上一季的獲利數字公布到現在，未達到獲利預期的公司創2009年第一季新高，而且還有許多家公司沒有公布。而從技術分析的角度來看，標普500週三、週四都未能突破50日均線，在週五終於突破50日均線，如果能站穩，現有的反彈還能維持一段期間，如果再次失敗，可能會向下重新整理。
2. 本週公布的第三季GDP較去年同期成長2.6%，結束連續兩季衰退。整體上沒有太大問題，也不需要特別挑毛病來證明美國第三季經濟沒有數字表現那麼強勁。
- 但數據顯示美國民間消費在服務項目依然強勁，但對商品的需求減少，再加上GDP成長主要因為進口減少，對全球其他出口導向國家並不是好消息。
- 至於有些分析師認為第三季經濟成長，所以我們就擺脫了經濟衰退的風險，這純屬無稽之談，2007年第四季美國GDP負成長，但2008年第一季、第二季GDP都是正成長，而NBER在2008年12月宣布美國在2007年12月進入經濟衰退。所以GDP轉正本身無法證明經濟衰退的威脅已經消失。
3. 在諸多因素影響下，香港恆生指數已接近2008年金融海嘯低點。此外，強勁的美元及快速攀升的利率也對許多發行以美元計價債券的亞洲企業產生影響，特別是垃圾債券/高收益債的利率直線上升。即使排除中國的不動產開發商，亞洲平均高收益債利率在十月中升至12%，遠高於去年年底時的5.5%。
- 再次強調在經濟衰退時，新興市場表現通常比美國弱勢。以全球金融資產配置角度，沒有必要特別排除新興市場，但除非有可驗證的獨到見解，不宜過度集中於新興市場。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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