財經零距離 – 10/29/2021
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【市場更新】
1. Delta變種的擴散以及全球供應鍊危機導致美國第三季經濟成長趨緩，成長率2%低於預期2.6%。供應鍊的影響也反映在公司營運結果上，Amazon的營收成長創七年以來最低記錄，Apple營收也不如預期，且兩家公司都表示短期內狀況改善幅度有限。以投資角度來看，短期的成長不理想對公司的長期估值影響有限，但當原本投資人對公司的高估值已假設一切都要接近完美時，短期的負面消息也會對股價產生長遠的影響。
2. 在首個比特幣的ETF經SEC核准的正面消息下，比特幣及其他的虛擬貨幣近來創下新高。我們在這裡簡單介紹一下投資比特幣ETF及直接投資比特幣的差異。
- 比特幣ETF(BITO)投資期貨，被迫到期時轉倉，建立遠期的部位:目前的比特幣ETF 是投資在比特幣期貨而非比特幣本身，因為期貨合約到期即結束，BITO將被迫不斷在市場轉倉到更遠期的到期日，而轉倉目前會面臨兩個問題:首先，目前比特幣期貨市場持續處於正價差(contango，也就是遠期期貨價格比近期高)，BITO在轉倉時將持續付出更高的價格，對長期報酬有負面的影響。另一方面，許多交易員可以利用BITO被迫轉倉的需要，有可能進一步提高BITO轉倉時買進遠期期貨的價格。
- 直接持有比特幣本身最直觀，但保管密碼及交易所的可信賴程度是一大問題: 直接投資比特幣可以避免上述的所有問題，但密碼保管是一大問題，特別是在金融機構代操時。而部分小型虛擬貨幣交易所負責人消失、盜取資產也時有所聞。ETF及期貨的組合可以解決信任問題，但代價就是報酬可能會略低於直接投資。
- 關鍵問題依然在於比特幣本身價值:期貨是所謂的衍生性金融商品，顧名思義，期貨的價值最終回歸至原始資產的價值，也就是比特幣。不論ETF及期貨有多少的管控，如果比特幣最終沒有價值，投資人的本金依然會受到損失。
- 我們一貫的立場仍是不特別鼓勵投資虛擬貨幣，但如果投資人充分了解虛擬貨幣的風險，在分散的投資組合內適度投資無傷大雅。此外，隨著虛擬貨幣逐漸被主流金融機構接受，也可以考慮利用PPLI (Private Placement Life Insurance) 投資虛擬貨幣，達到免所得稅、提高稅後報酬的效果。
3. 為尋找人力基礎建設法案財源(目前已縮水至$1.75兆美元)，民主黨提出不同加稅計畫，例如獲利超過$10億美元企業應繳納最低15%的所得稅。另外則是針對財產超過$10億美元富豪的財產加徵財產稅。最低15%的所得稅概念已在之前全球最低稅負稅率15%出現，對市場並未產生太大影響。而財產稅剛提出就受到民主內部反對，已無疾而終。取而代之的是對調整後所得超過一千萬美元的富豪加徵額外5%的所得稅。
- 雖然許多加稅法案未必會通過，通過的法案也未必像原始法案的影響那麼大。但從大趨勢而言，在美國歷史上目前是稅率較低的時期，在債務壓力下，美國未來加稅的可能性極高，應盡早開始稅務、傳承規劃。
- 人力基礎建設法案規模已大幅縮減，如果未來仍未能通過，市場作何反應值得觀察。
【疫情更新】
- 中國爆發Delta變種疫情，已有11省出現確診病例。俄羅斯確診及死亡人數皆創新高。南韓總理宣布將設法與Covid-19和平共存，預計2022年二月解除一切管制措施。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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