財經零距離 – 10/30/2020
Betty Shih
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場下跌，下列事件對本週有重大影響:
- 全球疫情惡化令投資人擔心各國政府將採取減緩經濟活動的控制措施: 疫情惡化應該早在大家預料之中，只是市場「突然」意識到政府可能會採取對經濟活動造成傷害的措施以控制疫情。
- 紓困方案無望在選舉前通過: 雖然紓困方案本身長遠來看不會改善經濟，但短期內紓困方案未通過有可能造成經濟的惡化，特別是在下列二個區塊:
– 房屋租賃市場: 過去一段時間地主允許零售業者緩繳或是減少租金支付，但地主已開始要求零售業者正常繳付租金。而對一般民眾而言，原本欠繳房租不得驅離的保護失效將會迫使他們優先繳付房租，影響消費能力。
– 一個有趣的數據是房客以信用卡繳付房租數量較去年同期大幅增加，可能是反映更多房東接受信用卡繳款，但也有可能代表房客選擇用信用卡延遲支付現金的時間，如果因疫情影響無法工作產生收入，未來可能對房屋市場產生不利影響。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
– 各州及地方政府為控制疫情而減緩經濟活動，導致稅收大幅減少，在沒有紓困方案資助下，部分政府必需裁員或是減少開支。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 市場希望總統及國會大選選舉結果有明確的贏家以避免爭議，但目前競爭激烈，情勢難以預測。
- 星期四盤後許多科技公司公布前一季度績效，下列公司獲利都優於市場預期，但為何除Alphabet (Google)外盤後股價下跌，甚至帶動週五開盤續跌?主要的原因就是投資人對科技公司的預期過高，”期待越高，傷害越大”。
(1) Twitter新註冊用戶數據較預期為低。
(2) Apple iPhone及中國地區銷售低於預期。
(3) Amazon第四季的展望不符投資人預期。
(4) Facebook對2021的展望充滿不確定性。
(5) Alphabet是唯一公布獲利數字後股價上漲的科技龍頭股。
2. 美國第三季GDP較前一季成長 7.4%或較去年同期成長33.1%，主要受益於消費者支出快速增長，已回復三分之二因疫情造成的經濟傷害。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
3. 首次申請失業救濟人數減少至751,000人，創七個月以來新低，市場關心疫情趨勢是否會影響包括就業在內的未來經濟活動。
【疫情更新】
1. 美國疫情快速攀升，尤其是在之前未受顯著影響的中西部地區。此外，之前第二波疫情中較不受影響的老年族群，在第三波疫情中確診率快速上升。白宮表示政府將專注於研發疫苗及治療方法，而不著重於控制疫情擴散。部分城市開始限縮商業開放或是其營業時間。
(Source: Refinitiv Workspace)
2. 歐洲同時也面臨惡化的第二波疫情，德國宣布未來幾週餐廳、酒吧及健身房不得營業，法國也宣布未來至少一個月餐廳、酒吧不得營業且禁止大規模集會。
3. 研究顯示牛津大學及AstraZeneca共同研發的疫苗對年長者有顯著的幫助而且副作用輕微，一切順利的話可能在2021年初可供高危險群施打。
4. 在英國的研究顯示痊癒者體內的抗體隨著時間大幅降低，顯示自然獲得的免疫能力存續期間不長。
【救市措施】
參議員於本週離開華盛頓特區，紓困方案於選舉前通過可能性已微乎其微，選舉結果將決定紓困方案的金額以及通過時點。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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