財經零距離 – 11/04/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 聯準會週三升息0.75%的決定，因為在市場的預料之中，所以一開始股市上漲，但在聯準會主席Jerome Powell在記者會發言後股市大幅下跌，標普500從高點到低點下跌了3.5%。
- 主要的原因在於一開始聯準會發布的聲明提到了升息不會馬上見效，但可能已對未來物價產生抑制效果，市場開始樂觀預期聯準會會開始暫緩升息。但Jerome Powell在記者會上提到也許12月就會放慢升息的速度，但要說升息就此結束還言之過早，而且最終的目標利率可能比原本九月時預期的還高，並可能維持在高位一段時間。徹底打消了市場的樂觀期待。
- 週三當天的市場表現可以說是從六月中以來股市的縮影，市場相信聯準會將放緩升息所以上漲，但這種樂觀的情緒會防礙聯準會控制通貨膨脹，所以聯準會官員會不斷地用鷹派發言來控制市場的預期。這也是我們為什麼之前提到如果真的要以聯準會政策作為投資依據，建議至少等到聯準會確定改弦更張之後再行動，不要每次都一廂情願地相信這次聯準會真的要縮手了。
2. 市場正面解讀週五的就業報告，我們則是持平的態度。大方向上，在這一波的下跌走勢緩和，特別是科技股穩定後，可以期待一波較長時間的反彈。
3. 聯準會縮表(停止在市場買進美國公債及房貸抵押證券)對房貸利率產生不利影響，除了聯準會自身縮手外，也連帶影響了銀行購買房貸抵押證券的意願(聯準會及銀行兩者合計持有75%的房貸抵押證券)。美國30年房貸利率與10年期公債利差由長期平均1.8%上升至3%，是過去20年來的高點。
【疫情更新】
中國是否結束清零政策本週對亞洲市場有極大的影響，在官方說明清零政策沒有改變後又傳出消息確定未來將放寬清零政策。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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