財經零距離 – 11/19/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 針對日漸高漲的油價，白宮對內對外分別採取了不同的措施，白宮首先呼籲中國、印度及日本釋出庫存原油以控制油價。同時對內要求聯邦貿易委員會調查美國石油公司是否聯手哄抬價格。中國已配合釋出原油庫存，導致原油價格下跌。市場估計聯邦貿易委員會不會太快採取行動，也不太可能對短期原油價格產生太大影響，但可能有助於未來政府採取更多管制措施，此外此行動也再次顯示拜登政府將採取更積極的措施限制美國大企業對整體經濟的影響。
- 撇開政治動作或是陰謀論不談(部分人士認為傳統能源業者與美國政府立場不同所以沒有動機協助政府降低原油價格)，單純就供需關係來看，在能源需求因為疫情解封後突然增加下，能源供給並沒有隨之提升自然導致了油價上漲。而提到原油供給就要提到OPEC(石油輸出國組織)以及美國以頁岩油為主的開採公司。
- OPEC不提高產量的原因絕大部分是因為無法預期疫情是否會突然惡化，導致能源需求減少，所以即使一時能源需求提高，OPEC也不願意增產。
- 美國頁岩油為主的開採公司則是因為在投資人的壓力下不願意增產: 早期投資人看重產量，所以開採公司在賺錢後大多再去開採新的油井，並沒有把獲利返還投資人的壓力。但在2014年開始油價暴跌後，投資人轉而要求公司不要無止境地擴張。公司目前一方面享受高油價帶來的獲利上升，另一方面在投資人要求下也沒有增產的壓力，自然沒有增產的意願。
- 回歸投資層面，在兩大主要產油「組織」沒有增產意願下，供給相形之下較為固定，需求是否受未來疫情發展影響是觀察重點。而整體傳統能源股雖然已持續上漲一段時間，但仍有部分優質的能源公司價格仍在合理範圍內，依然是合適的投資標的。
2. 美國財政部警告如果國會不提高債務上限，美國恐怕於12/15年因無法償債而違約。如之前所說，債務上限問題一定會解決，但是兩黨在協商過程中如採取太為激烈的手段，可能會對市場有不利影響。
3. $1兆基礎建設法案經拜登總統簽字生效，該法案並未激起市場太大的反應(通常當法案已經簽署字，市場即不再有興趣，再次驗證所謂的buy the rumor, sell the news)。該法案預期要數月才會實際撥款，而對經濟影響可能要一年以上才會顯現。$2兆的人力基礎建設法案則在星期五由眾議院通過送交參議院審議。
4. 洛杉磯的Staple Center將改名為Crypto.com Arena，買下命名權的Crypto.com是一家虛擬貨幣交易所。過去的經驗是某公司花大錢取得球場/運動場命名權後通常經營會出現問題，此次Staple Center更名是否會遵循之前的經驗，甚至代表的不是公司本身而是虛擬貨幣本身整體的高峰值得觀察。
【疫情更新】
- 美國中西、西南以及東北部疫情再次蔓延。奧地利為控制疫情恢復全面封鎖，並要求民眾明年二月一日起強制接種疫苗。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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