財經零距離 – 11/20/2020
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【市場更新】
1. 本週股市整體小跌，但納斯達克綜合指數微幅上揚。我們依然認為投資人在標普500有效地突破3310 (自3200上調)~3600的區間前不需要大動作調整，但目前種種跡象顯示短期內向上突破頗有難度:
- 市場創新高後疫苗的好消息(請見下文)無法持續推升股市，顯示市場可能需要調整一段時間才能向上挑戰高點。
- 公司內部人賣股比率再創新高，內部人未必是對的，但搭配市場高點等因素，對投資人仍是警訊。(image 1; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 投資人”終於”相信牛市來了，調查顯示基金經理人看好股市比例創近年新高。(image 2; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 股市有沒有可能再向下修正30%?當然有可能，但沒有人知道什麼時候。如果投資人能承擔巨幅股市波動，建議堅守長期的投資計畫。如果部分資金想靈活操作，建議諮詢專業經理人。
2. 在聯準會的資金挹注下，經濟基本面與股市的關聯性越來越低，但目前部分經濟數據顯示經濟解封後成長逐漸趨緩:
- 十月份的零售數據較前月僅小幅成長，顯示民間消費逐漸失去動能。(image 3; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 勞動市場趨弱: 上週的首次申請失業救濟人數微幅上升，另外今年九月到十月為因應假期而雇用的臨時雇員較去年同期減少20%。
【疫情更新】
1. 為因應疫情，各州目前採取更嚴格的防疫措施，希望能減緩感恩節假期的疫情擴散。
- 疫情惡化下，除了疫情本身造成的死亡外，市場最關心的是政府採取的防疫手段是否會大幅限制經濟活動的發展。目前看來拜登反對全國性的封城措施，至少免除了現階段對市場的不利影響。
- 目前預估本波新增確診人數將在本月月底達到高峰後緩和，而死亡人數將會在確診人數高峰後一段時間下降。(image 4; Source: The Daily Shot)
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- 經常有人拿疫情惡化來解釋市場為何下跌，但其實從政府的防疫措施及確診人數就可以看出疫情的發展方向，在現階段投資人不應該將疫情惡化視為無法預期的黑天鵝事件。
2. 繼Pfizer後，Moderna的疫苗也傳來好消息，而Pfizer也在本週進一步宣布將向主管機關申請核准使用。預期明年一月時可望有足夠的疫苗供應2千2百萬美國人施打。
- 之前的FDA局長 Scott Gottlieb相信如果疫苗資料可信，明年年底疫情將會絕跡。
- 即使疫苗被證明有效， Fauci預期至少要有75%的民眾施打疫苗才能放寬包括戴口罩在內的防疫措施。
3. 日本的單日新增確診人數創新高，東京將疫情警戒提高到最高層級。
【救市措施】
1. 拜登支持眾議院之前通過的$3.4兆美元紓困方案，該方案依然未得到參議院的支持。
2. 財政部長Mnuchin拒絕延長聯準會的緊急信用方案至2021年並要求聯準會將未使用的CARES法案額度繳還國庫。這也暗示年一月的拜登政府在缺乏參議院支持的情況下，未必能即時重啟救助計畫。這些針對企業的信用方案在今年春天時有效地支撐市場，部分投資人擔心對未來市場的發展。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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