財經零距離 – 12/05/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 美聯儲主席Jerome Powell週三重申會放緩升息的速度，其實只是重複這一個月來同樣的訊息，但是依然激勵標普500在當天上漲超過3%。除了顯示至少Powell沒有釋出更多的壞消息之外，也反映出市場想要找到理由支持股市上漲的迫切需要。這也可以從周五的就業報告看出端倪，就業報告顯示就業市場遠較分析師預期強勁，雖然讓投資人擔心聯準會無法降息、造成股市開盤下跌，但隨後逐漸回升。這也能從恐懼/貪婪指數顯示目前市場處於極度貪婪的狀況得到佐證。
(image 1, Source: Daily Shot)
- 實際上，除了許多美聯儲官員在周三之前就再度重申雖然升息會減速，但不會馬上停止，市場似乎也沒有在意Jerome Powell週三的另一段訊息，「歷史告訴我們不能太快放寬貨幣政策，美聯儲會持續目前的方向直到任務達成為止」。
- 而就業報告終究是落後指標，即使表現強勁，對未來的預測效果有限。如果美聯儲錯誤地依據就業報告作為調整貨幣政策的依據，只會帶來更負面的效果。
- 這幾天許多金融資產都接近轉折點，特別是美元及VIX指數，很容易與股票指數相互影響。再加上剛才提到市場處於一個極鬆懈的狀態，這一波的反彈可能已經接近尾聲，如果之前是抱著搶反彈心態進場的人可以考慮見好就收。
2. 知名另類資產管理人Blackstone宣布旗下的私募不動產投資信託(REIT)因已達本季贖回的上限，將限制投資人贖回，造成該公司股價下跌。該REIT十月底時淨資產達$690億美元。
- 該REIT之前在市場十分火熱，也有許多理財顧問推薦客戶購買，但往往都沒有提及流動性的問題，造成客戶在需要用錢時受到限制。
- 過去幾年許多校務基金、主權基金在另類資產上獲取超額報酬的新聞讓許多一般投資人也躍躍欲試。但另類資產往往結構複雜，再加上流動性的限制，並不適合所有人投資。建議投資人還是投資自己熟悉的金融資產，不要幻想自己換了更複雜的工具就能賺錢，結果往往適得其反。
【疫情更新】
中國適度放寬防疫限制，市場期待放寬防疫限制有助於供應鏈緩解及帶動全球經濟成長，但是否將造成更大規模疫情值得觀察。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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