財經零距離 – 12/09/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場因投資人擔心優於預期的經濟數據將導致聯準會持續升息而下跌，這是新聞媒體普遍的說法。從另一個角度來看，上週之前的市場有一種十分鬆懈的心態，即使是上週五優於預期的就業報告最後也被樂觀的心態拯救，僅以小跌作收。但隨著時間接近下週聯準會實際宣布升息的數據，市場逐漸轉趨保守。目前看來雖然市場已經沒有之前如此的樂觀，但仍不是一個進場撿便宜的好時候。我們延續上週的看法，建議投資人見好就收。
2. OPEC+週末宣布維持之前減產兩百萬桶的決定，但油價仍在持續下跌，即使西方國家同時對俄羅斯出口的原油祭出了限價令，依然沒有起色。油價目前已降低俄烏衝突發生前的價位。
- 油價下跌反應了市場對未來油品的需求逐漸悲觀，而這與越來越多人終於接受經濟衰退可能到來不無關係。
- 另一方面，西方國家的限價令，本來就是希望俄羅斯的原油出口不要受到影響，自然對油價也沒有太大抬升的效果。
- 當之前美國政府宣布將以每桶$67~$72美元的價位回補今年釋出的戰略儲油時，許多業界人士嗤之以鼻，認為未來的油價將遠高於這個區間，根本無法激勵美國廠商開採原油。但隨著經濟展望漸趨保守，$67-$72油價下檔保護的作用可能大幅提高。
- 油價低也反映在美國加油站的油槍上，目前汽油的價位已經低於去年同期，在其他物價已過高峰的情況下，有望持續緩解通貨膨脹的壓力。
3. 華爾街日報報導全美最大的五家銀行(Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo)上一季的存款利率為0.4%，遠低於市場上利率最佳五家銀行的平均2.14%。存款利率由0.4%提高為2.14%的話，全美上季利息收入將增加$420億美元。
- 華爾街日報自己也理解這不是嚴謹的分析，因為當有如此大量新存款出現時，不可能全部適用較高的利率…
- …但這反應了兩個現象: 1)大銀行不缺錢，也沒有誘因提高存款利率回饋存戶; 2)存戶對低利習以為常，沒有理解到其實讓自己的利息收入變成五倍以上並不困難。
- 很多人覺得大銀行安全，小銀行不安全才需要以高利吸引存戶。但事實上在FDIC存款保險的保護下，每一存戶$250,000以內的存款在有參加FDIC的銀行都一樣安全。
- 至於超過$250,000的存款怎麼辦呢?除了分散到不同的銀行外，市面上也有一些Cash Program可以幫存戶同時在許多家銀行開戶，除了避免在多家銀行開戶的麻煩外，年底也只會收到一張1099稅表。享有更多銀行FDIC的保護，同時有機會獲取比傳統大銀行更高的利息。有興趣的人可以參收集更多資訊，作對自己最有利的決定。
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