財經零距離 – 12/11/2020
Betty Shih
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【市場更新】
1. 美股三大指數在本週間皆創下新高，但紓困方案遲未通過對市場造成負面影響，另外首次申請失業救濟人數創下九月以來新高，過去此類負面經濟數據會被市場解讀為有助於對國會施加壓力盡速通過紓困方案，但在本週看來並不適用，最後市場以下跌作收。
2. 標普500目前價格高於200日均線超過16%，自2007年以來，只有在2009年8月到12月之間有如此大的差異。
- 以正面的角度來看，雖然在2010年年初時市場最多下跌8%，但在回檔後市場還是繼續上漲。
- 但與當時情況最大的不同點在於目前的市場估值是處於歷史高點，而2009~2010的估值並未回復2007年高點的水準。
- 估值高不代表市場會馬上反轉，但短期上價格向均線移動引發回檔很有可能發生，我們的看法是在標普500有效跌破3580之前不需過度擔心。(本週由之前的3310向上調整至3580)。
3. 美國公司債利率首次低於通貨膨脹率，亦即不止是把錢放在銀行不划算，就連投資公司債也會讓錢越來越薄。
- 在低利率的時代，許多人會轉向高利率且風險也較高的商品。建議投資人在投資這類商品前一定要諮詢專業經理人，確定符合自己的風險及報酬預期程度。
4. 美國消費者信心與股市表現有極大落差，合理預期未來幾個月內，或者消費者信心將大幅改善，或者股市將會進入修正。
(Source: The Daily Shot)
5. 英國與歐洲針對英國脫歐細節談判無實質進展，雙方同意在星期日前決定是否要繼續協商。在全球經濟已因疫情擴散受影響的情況下，脫歐談判的變數對市場及經濟無正面幫助。
【疫情更新】
疫情尚未出現好轉跡象，但持續傳出疫苗的正面消息。美國已通過Pfizer-BoNTech疫苗的使用，而某位官員表示在明年第二季時應有足夠的疫苗供所有願意施打疫苗的美國民眾使用。
【救市措施】
財政部長Mnuchin提出$9,000億的紓困方案，是白宮在總統大選後首次採取與紓困方案相關的動作。但民主共和兩黨各有不願妥協的議題，雙方仍在持續協商中。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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