財經零距離 – 12/18/2020
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【市場更新】
1. 本週市場在週間再創新高，紓困方案的進展對市場有極大的影響。但整體來看，除了上週提到標普500大幅偏離200日移動均線外，其他指標也顯示市場處於極端高點:
- Citi的恐慌/樂觀指數顯示市場極度樂觀，處於21年來的高點。
(image 1; Source: The Boock Report)
- 基金經理人”梭哈”，手中現金餘額已接近二、三月市場大跌前的多年低點。
(image 2; Source: The Daily Shot)
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- 我們之前有提過三月以來的低點反彈是一般投資人先進場，基金經理人大多觀望，直到幾個星期前基金經理人才進場，也帶動了市場創新高的行情。如果沒有新的市場需求，市場高點不易維持。
2. 本週公布的經濟數據顯示復甦趨緩，強化了紓困方案的重要性:
- 十一月美國零售數據顯示連續兩月下跌(image 3; Source: The Daily Shot)，零售數據之前的成長除了得利於部分家庭移轉消費支出外(例如因為不能出國旅遊而轉向購買其他商品)，政府之前的補助也有極大的幫助，但之前政府發放的每人$1,200已經接近用罊，這個問題在所得較低的族群上更為嚴重(image 4; Source: The Daily Shot)。部分經濟學家擔心將影響第四季的GDP成長。
(image 3; Source: The Daily Shot)
(image 4; Source: The Daily Shot)
- 製造業及服務業採購經理人指數仍處於擴張階段，但為三個月新低。
- 首次申請失業救濟人數較上週增加，創下九月以來新高。
3. 聯準會本週發布了較之前樂觀的經濟復甦預測，並承諾將持續購買債券，但市場仍對聯準會未加碼購買債券感到失望。
4. 房屋市場在疫情期間出乎眾人意外的依然火紅，但目前看來已低的房貸利率不容易繼續向下，而美國的就業成長開始趨緩，房屋銷售市場成長可能趨緩。
- 房價/租金比目前處於2007年以來高點，也部分反映了目前房價偏高的狀況。
(image 5; Source: Rosenberg Research)
5. 英國脫歐貿易談判在英國及歐盟雙方同意下繼續協商，暫時擺脫無貿易協定下英國硬脫歐的最壞狀況。
【疫情更新】
1. 美國確診及就醫人數持續增加，但已有可供施打的疫苗，
2. 歐洲疫情持續惡化，德國、英國、荷蘭宣布將採取更進一步的管制措施。
【救市措施】
- 在參議院多數黨領袖Mitch McConnell宣布在聖誕節前一定要通過紓困方案的消息下，市場樂觀預期紓困方案將在年底前通過，兩黨仍在持續協商中。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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