財經零距離 – 12/19/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 聯準會週三釋放的訊息再次令市場失望，雖然本次升息0.5%在市場預期之中，但是聯準會預期的最終聯邦基準利率由之前的4.6%升高為5.1%，另外也打碎了市場預期明年下半年聯準會將降息的期望，依照聯準會的估計，明年充其量是暫停升息，而不會實際降息。其實聯準會這次放出的新聞稿與之前幾乎完全一樣，市場如此失落還是因為期待越高、失望越大。週二公布的消費者物價指數遠優於預期，所以市場認為聯準會是理由改變未來政策方向，但聯準會主席Jerome Powell卻認為雖然商品以及住房成本上漲趨緩，但是因為薪資上漲，服務業的物價上漲幅度可能會維持在高點一段時間。所以即使理解升息可能對經濟產生影響，依然堅持升息的政策。
- 我們之前解釋過:美國民眾對商品的需求將不會維持在疫情期間的水準，所以商品價格上漲會趨緩; 另外房租通常落後房價12-18個月，房市在今年年中冷卻後，住房成本會受到控制。
- 至於薪資帶動服務業物價上漲，其實可以反過來看，許多民眾因為政府的紓困金並沒有積極找工作，而企業因為有理由可以漲價，所以有更大的空間調薪來吸引勞工工作。只要民眾用完了儲蓄，也無法繼續利用信用卡消費，首先是民間消費將趨緩，其次是勞工會重新回到勞動市場，所以我們並不認為薪資以及服務業的物價上漲幅度能維持太久。
- 我們依然認為通貨膨脹已經過了高峰，但是不論聯準會何時暫停升息、甚至開始降息，之前快速升息已經對全球經濟造成一定的影響。而目前新聞報導市場普遍還是相信經濟會軟著陸，並沒有充分反應經濟衰退的情境。所以即使我們預期這波快速、大幅的下跌將暫時告一段落、開始反彈。但我們建議投資人採取防禦型的策略，以長期而非進場撿便宜的心態進場，因為其實沒有什麼便宜可撿。
2. 國際清算銀行(BIS)警告約有$65兆的換匯交易依會計規定無需記錄於資產負債表中，其中88%與美元相關，由於金額龐大(10倍於金融機構資本)而且在資產負債表外，其潛在風險難以估算。
- 換匯交易指的是交易雙方約定現在以即期匯率交換兩種貨幣後，同時約定在未來再依遠期匯率交換相同金額。
- 當匯率沒有顯著變化時，其實換匯交易風險易於評估。但當匯率變化快速且幅度大時就令人擔心是否有可能部分參與者無法如期履行合約。今年因為美元快速升值，而且未來還有可能因為金融市場波動引發資金回流持續推升美元，部分分析師擔心有些參與換匯交易者屆時將被迫出售美元資產以履行美元債務需求，引發流動性事件。
- 所謂潛在風險難以估算就只是難以估算，不一定代表一定會發生，也不代表發生的後果一定難以承受。大家可以持續以關心但不用擔心的心態關注事件的發展。
【疫情更新】
- 部分中國城市在放寬疫情限制後又部分回復以因應激增的病例。紐約重新要求民眾戴口罩。洛杉磯考慮是否恢復室內戴口罩的要求。
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