財經零距離 – 12/3/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 新的變種病毒Omicron主宰了自上週五之後的股市走向，當有新聞指出其擴撤力強且現行疫苗的防護力會打折扣時市場大跌，當新聞指出大部分病患不會發展成重症或某種新藥品有效時股市大漲。
- 不論何時，市場都不喜歡不確定性，在市場處於高位時更是如此。此外，市場在11月上旬對下檔保護的需求大幅降低，顯示市場對突如其來的意外沒有準備，所以造成最近大幅的價格波動。不論Omicron最後的實際影響，在研究數據證明其影響力前，其帶來的不確定性都會提高市場的波動性。
- 雖然許多人都企圖成為流行病學家以預測Omicron的影響，但即使是專家目前也仍在摸索階段，更別說是其他專業的民眾。目前CNN的貪婪恐慌指數顯示目前市場處於極度恐慌的情況，雖然不代表市場一定會大漲，但很大機率跌幅有限。我們依然建議不要受媒體影響恐慌性地賣出或加碼，如果近期的跌幅金額大到投資人不能承受，可以在反彈階段適度減碼。
(Source: CNN)
2. 另一個在本週造成市場下跌的新聞則是聯準會主席Jerome Powell認為通貨膨脹不再是暫時現象，宣布將加速減少在市場購買金融資產以控制通膨。在市場普遍相信通貨膨脹是常態的情況下，投資人或許應該考慮相反的可能性:
- 我們預期聯準會的動作主要目的是宣示效果，未必真的認為通膨不再是暫時性現象:雖然不能排除聯準會的確改變了他們對通貨膨脹的預期，但也有可能聯準會單純只是想釋放訊息表明聯準會了解民眾對物價上漲感到的痛苦，並且將採取措施回應。雖然通貨膨脹是因為供應鍊緊張造成，聯準會的貨幣政策能發揮的效果極微，但也可能透過改變民眾的預期來控制物價上漲。如果物價真能受到控制，聯準會緊縮資金、升息的壓力都會降低。
- 供應鍊瓶頸已得到緩解: 拜登總統宣稱部分供應鍊瓶頸已得到緩解，零售商有充足的存貨以因應聖誕假期的購物需求。雖然有很大一部分是政治宣傳的意義，但從不同資料來看，這個說法並不完全是空穴來風。
- 美國民眾消費需求逐漸恢復正常: 不論是Black Friday或是Cyber Monday的民眾消費並沒有延續今年以來的消費熱潮，民間消費需求可能已逐步恢復正常。此外，據報導蘋果電腦警告供應商iPhone的需求可能減緩，雖然只是一家公司一時的預期，但過去供給減少且需求增加造成物價上漲的情況可能已有轉變。
- Omicron是最大的未知因素，有人預測Omricron會使供應鍊緊張惡化、加劇通貨膨脹，也有人認為新病毒會減緩經濟活動、壓低油價、緩和通貨膨脹。在有明確資料顯示發展趨勢前，無需過度臆測Omicron的影響。
3. 民主共和兩黨達成共識，聯邦政府將持續運作至明年二月十八日，避免預期本週可能發生的政府關門。
【疫情更新】
- 為因應新變種病毒Omicron的威脅，美國宣布所有入境美國者不論是否已接種疫苗，皆需提供24小時內陰性檢驗結果。美國加州出現首位Omicron病例。新病毒也打亂了亞洲諸國的重新開放計畫。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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