財經零距離 – 12/4/2020

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: December 4th, 202012.1 min readViews: 14305

Betty Shih

【市場更新】

1. 市場在疫苗及紓困方案有望通過的正面消息下續創新高，從部分指標可以看出市場的樂觀態度

Barron’s封面標題「道瓊工業指數及標普500將創下1928年以來最佳的11月單月漲幅」(Barron’s出刊時只結算到11/27)，通常記者下這類的標題都要表達正面的意向，但如果看到1928年11月之後市場的發展，看起來就未必這麼正面了:
– 1928年12月到1929年8月上漲34%
– 1929年9月到11月下跌33%
– 1928年11月後未來的12個月市場總共下跌11%
CNN貪婪指數創下疫情以來新高。

(Source: CNN)

標普500成分股中股價超過200日均線的比例持續創新高。

(Source: The Daily Shot)

賣權/買權比例20日均線創新低，顯示市場樂觀認為不需要賣權保護下檔風險。

(Source: The Daily Shot)

2. 過去兩年來，傳統能源股表現大幅落後新興能源。

(Source: The Daily Shot)不可諱言，新興能源的確是長期的趨勢，但在部分傳統能源公司股價被市場嚴重低估的情況下，傳統能源其實也是個不錯的投資機會，但是短期上疫情的發展可能會導致股價波動較大，投資人投資前一定要考量自己的風險承受程度。

3. 消費者在今年的Black Friday及Cyber Monday消費較去年同期減少14%，顯示線上購物的成長不足以抵消因疫情造成的實體店面衰退。另一方面也暗示消費者的信心並未完全恢復，新紓困方案及適度的疫情管制有助於恢復消費者信心，持續提振經濟直到疫苗發揮作用。

【疫情更新】

1. 疫苗預計最快12月12日就可以在美國施打，部分人士預估如果在2021年五月時有70%的民眾施打疫苗，屆時生活即可恢復常態。

2. 在生活恢復常態前，未來幾個月的疫情發展不甚樂觀，美國目前單日住院治療人數破100,000創新高

(Source: The Daily Shot)，但新增確診人數看似已過高峰。

(Source: The Daily Shot)

3. 英法同時宣布將放寬部分限制措施，以讓企業及民眾適度享受聖誕假期。英國並成為第一個允許使用經完整測試疫苗的國家，預計醫療院所將於12/7收到疫苗。

【救市措施】

總統當選人拜登持續表達期待國會能迅速在年底前通過新紓困方案，部分兩黨國會議員提案$9,080億元的紓困方案，民主黨的眾議院發言人及參議院領袖認為該方案可以作為新協議的起點，被視為是兩黨協商僵持不下的首次重大突破，而參議院共和黨領袖Mitch McConnell也表示雙方妥協近在咫尺。

部分經濟學家認為在疫情惡化下經濟逐漸趨緩，紓困方案是目前最有效可以在疫苗全面施打前穩定經濟的手段。
在大多數民眾支持新紓困方案及明年一月喬治亞州選舉將影響參議院多數的情況下，兩黨應有足夠意願盡速通過紓困方案。
(Source: The Daily Shot)

圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者

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