財經零距離 – 2/11/2022
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【市場更新】
1.週四公布的消費者物價指數較預期為高且創下40年來最大漲幅，有可能促使聯準會加快升息腳步，市場在當天開盤時受此負面消息下跌，但之後逐漸回升，直到St. Louis聯儲主席James Bullard表示三月聯準會就有可能加息0.5%，七月時可能累計加息1%，從而引發週四的市場大跌。
- 加息是否會對市場產生衝擊?一定會。但James Bullard並不能代表聯準會全體的意向，部分聯準會官員在Bullard的談話之後也認為Bullard的加息計畫過於激進。而市場對加息的預期會隨時隨著經濟、金融市場狀況改變，即使現在部分金融機融預期今年會加息七次，也不代表其必然發生。
- 唯一可以確定的是市場的波動率必會隨著加息的可能性以及聯準會官員的放話頻率而提高，這也是為何我們強調不能只投資股票。如果已經有完整的資產配置，建議不要過度擔心加息的消息。
- 加息、疫情、烏俄情勢(引發週五股市下挫)，這類事件都遠超過大部分人的掌控，即使是全球最頂尖的經濟學家(聯準會自己對利息的預測準確率也是低的可憐)、流行病學家、地緣政治學家也很少預測正確，可以關心但不要過度擔心。
2. 雖然債券利率隨著聯準會升息預期持續升高，但在銀行沒有大量放款需求下，存款利率依然保持在極低的水準，所謂的高利率儲蓄帳戶年利率僅約0.5%。
- 通常在財務規劃上建議民眾準備約六個月供急用的生活預備金，雖然「高利」的儲蓄帳戶利息並非真的很高，但仍然適合民眾存放緊急預備金。
- 任何超過六個月但仍放在銀行的資金有時被戲稱為「懶惰」的錢(lazy money)，應該認真考慮是否能發揮更大的效用。只要投資人能將資金大致區分為短中長期規劃，往往都能找到適合的投資標的。舉例來說，如果是長期退休規劃甚至是傳承規劃的資金，可以考慮投資時期長、報酬高的積極策略。如果是短時間等待時機、有可能隨時需要變現的資金，還是有機會賺取比銀行利息高，而風險又被控制在一定程度。由泛宇資產管理公司管理的防禦型策略過去幾年的年化報酬大約在5~6%之間*，在2022年一月市場波動時期僅下跌2.3%，歡迎洽詢泛宇的專業團隊以獲取更多資訊。
【疫情更新】
在Omicron疫情高峰過後有更多國家取消管制: 美國有更多州放寬口罩限制。澳洲在近兩年封鎖後預期於2/21開放邊界。丹麥取消所有疫情限制。中國則是持續進行嚴格管控，香港也要求民眾待在家中、避免外出。
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