財經零距離 – 2/12/2021
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【市場更新】
- Reddit論壇網民將標的轉向大麻股，各大麻公司股價在網民炒熱後週四迅速回落，但仍然維持一定的漲幅。(Source: The Wall Street Journal)
- 從散戶vs對沖基金變成散戶坑殺散戶: 之前在炒作GameStop的議題上，網民一直強調散戶vs對沖基金來強調行動的道德性。但首先最大獲利者未必是散戶(請見下文)，其次，演變至後來已經連道德性的大義名份都不需要，作法與早上車的散戶出貨/坑殺接到最後一棒的散戶無異。
- 一定有人高價幫你接貨是不實際的出場策略: 提醒觀眾朋友，如果把聽明牌當作投資策略，一定要想清楚如何出場。如果出場策略是期待下一個人願意出更高的價格接貨，那要進一步想如果那個人不存在或很長一段時間不出現怎麼辦。「漲了就賣，跌了就買」是邏輯正確但極難作到的操作方法。
- 富達揭露其持有GameStop的股數由去年十二月底的9.3百萬股減少至一月底的87股。在處分持股之前，富達是GameStop的最大股東。再次驗證金融市場的複雜程度不能用小蝦米對大鯨魚一句話涵蓋。
- 調查顯示有1/3的民眾表示拿到新紓困方案的支票後將存起來，18%的民眾會拿來償還信用卡借款，實際會用來消費的部分不大，而且絕大部分花費於食物及租金。如果這個比例反映實際支出，不論是市場相信的民間消費過熱或通貨膨脹都不會發生。
- 美國一月消費者物價指數較前月上升0.3%，中國消費者物價指數較前月降低0.3%。顯示目前並沒有嚴重的通貨膨脹。
- 很多人都相信政府拚命印鈔票會引發通貨膨脹，但這只是一半的故事。如果鈔票都鎖在銀行裡沒有透過放款在外流通，不管政府印多少鈔票都不會引發通貨膨脹。2008年金融危機之後的發展驗證了這一點。
- 我們持續認為上週提到的歐美維持進口需求+亞洲國家因為疫情惡化造成出口減少情境是屬於低機率但最快達到通貨膨脹的路徑
【疫情更新】
- 美國疫情持續改善，確診人數、住院人數及死亡人數全面降低。(Source: The New York Times)
【救市措施】
- 民主黨公布新一波紓困方案部分重點項目細節，包括每週$400額外失業保險給付直到8/29，以及每人$1,400的現金給付，現金給付部分將維持之前兩次紓困方案的所得門檻。
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