財經零距離 – 2/13/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 本週最戲劇性的事件發生在週二聯準會主席Jerome Powell的公開演說，其實內容與上週聯準會升息後的記者會沒有太大差異，但當他提到物價開始穩定時，股市上漲，而當他提到可能還是要持續多次升息時，股市大幅下跌。但在收盤前二個半小時沒有任何理由的快速上漲。部分分析師認為這是當日到期選擇權/期權的影響。
- 當日到期期權，英文是0DTE，正常的情況下，期權是約定未來的某一天按照約定的價格買進賣出特定股票，通常可能是一星期或一個月，甚至更久以後。而0DTE是在期權到期的當天買進賣出新的部位，而這樣短期的期權在最近幾年持續增加 (image 1; Source: Daily Shot)，
特別是在重大事件，像是聯準會開會、公布就業報告或是消費者物價指數時交易會特別的活絡。
- 成本低再加上聯準會升息讓0DTE大受歡迎: 為什麼這種期權最近很熱門呢?一個是因為成本低，很多人應該聽過許多人因為期權成本比股票低所以喜歡作期權超過投資股票，而到期日越短，期權成本越低，所以對很多資金有限的人來說，當日到期期權更有吸引力。另一個則是以前錢放在現金沒利息，只能去投資股票，現在現金給的利息可以到4%，再加上去年市場不好，許多人虧錢。所以越來越多人把大部分的資金放在現金，而寄望能用一小部分的資金以小搏大。
- 0DTE讓市場波動加劇而且投資人無法由VIX感受到變化: 當日到期期權熱絡帶來了兩個影響，第一個就是容易讓市場出現更多無法合理解釋的波動，而當股票上漲/下跌趨勢出現時，加大上漲/下跌的幅度，大家可以回想一下GameStop當時的狀況。週二當天有48%的期權交易是所謂的當日到期期權，再加上股市與其他金融資產的變動不一致，所以有人懷疑是這種期權造成的。另一個影響則是因為這種期權不會列入波動率指數VIX，也就是恐慌指數的計算，所以有可能目前的VIX低估了市場的波動，有可能在未來造成股市快速的崩跌。
- 投機心態終會隨泡沫破滅: 從整體市場角度來看，這種短期期權的盛行都反應了市場的投機心態，而這種投機心態最終還是必需接受現實的考驗，例如說當企業獲利受經濟衰退影響大幅下滑時，投資人通常就會由極度樂觀轉為極度悲觀，而泡沫也會再一次破滅。
2. 在週二的「無基之彈」後，市場處於下滑的趨勢，目前看來我們從1/20開始警告的波段高點發生在2/2。如果手上持有多種不同金融資產的投資組合，不需要過度擔心。如果只持有股票，要留意即使是最安全的股票也有可能受市場影響大幅下滑。一向被視為相對安全的標普500公用事業ETF XLU今年至2/9止下跌近6%。科技龍頭股Alphabet週二上漲近5%後連續兩天下跌，跌幅合計達12%。可以說是只有你想不到，沒有不可能。
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