財經零距離 – 2/17/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 股票市場及債券市場對聯準會動向的判斷有極大的分歧
- 債券市場方面逐漸放棄之前的樂觀心態: 債券市場投資人認為聯準會不但會繼續升息，而且2023年看不到降息的可能。除了我們前兩週提到超乎預期強勁的就業報告外，還有一個就是本週二公布的消費者物價指數，上個月的消費者物價指數其實與分析師預期一致，但部分媒體卻希望能下跌的更多，所以認為聯準會的確沒有降息的空間。
- 股票市場投資人在週四前完全無視可能升息的狀況: 科技股及虛擬貨幣都大幅上揚。股市投資人不相信強勁的經濟數據會導致聯準會持續升息，但他們相信強勁的經濟數據顯示不會有經濟衰退。這種樂觀的景象直到週四兩名聯準會官員各自發表了鷹派的看法後才讓市場下跌，並且持續到星期五。
- 股市投資人的樂觀令人匪夷所思: 近期公布的2022第四季企業獲利極有可能創下自2020年第三季以來首次的獲利衰退，而且雖然市場一片樂觀，但有更多的企業內部人在賣股票。在依然認為會有經濟衰退的前提下，我們對股票市場維持比較保守的看法。
- 最近的市場發展對債券投資有利: 股票及債券走勢相反的關係雖然在2022被打破，但最近又恢復了相反的關係，意思是未來有可能在股市下跌時，債券能上漲、重新扮演緩衝的角色。而6個月的短天期美國公債利率一度觸碰到5%，是2007年以來最高水準。所以說雖然股票市場前景不明，但債券市場依然提供了不錯的投資機會。
2. 巴菲特的Berkshire Hathaway公司出售86%的台積電股票，市場對此議論紛紛，特別是許多抱持著「巴菲特看好的股票，我可以買進跟著發財」的投資人覺得自己上當了。以下提供一些觀點給大家參考：
- Berkshire Hathaway也有其他的投資經理人，無法證明投資台積電是巴菲特的決定。(當然其他兩位投資經理也是很優秀的投資人，只是大部分人焦點放在巴菲特一人而已)。
- 即使巴菲特也作過錯誤的決定，例如買進IBM或是在疫情期間在低點出清航空股，但無損巴菲特是個偉大投資人的事實。
- 如果長期持有巴菲特的整體持股，自然可以得到接近巴菲特的投資績效(憑藉著資金量的優勢，巴菲特有時可以以較一般人優異的條件投資，這是一個無法克服的障礙)
- 如果只是選擇性地投資巴菲特的持股，除非你能證明你的選股比巴菲特更精準，否則自然無法複製巴菲特的績效。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
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