財經零距離 – 2/18/2022
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【市場更新】
1.俄烏衝突的發展在本週主導了市場的漲跌，週二俄羅斯撤軍的消息振奮了股市，但隨即新聞媒體又報導俄羅斯實際上在俄烏邊界增兵，市場又隨即開始下跌。
- 許多分析師繼流行病學家後又兼職地緣政治學家，開始分析俄羅斯是否真有可能入侵烏克蘭。我們建議從另一個角度來看:如果真的爆發俄烏衝突，對美國股市有多大影響?在某個研究彙總的資料發現，從1941年珍珠港事變至今超過20次的地緣衝突事件，美國股市平均20天見底，在這段期間平均下跌不超過5%，大約40天就回復所有的損失。
簡單來說，影響有限，屬於在一般投資時都應該考慮在內的市場波動。 - 有一位經歷過冷戰時期核武恐怖平衡的交易員曾略帶黑色幽默的說:當你看到新聞報導核彈頭發射、市場恐慌時趕快進場買進，如果是假新聞，你很有可能大賺一筆，如果新聞是真的，那你也不必太擔心，因為會找你要錢的人很有可能也不在了。我們並不鼓勵在此時加碼，但建議不需要過度恐慌、完全將投資組合變現。如果投資人的投資組合在這時出現超出預期的波動，那很有可能是投資組合設計出錯，而不是進出場時機問題。
簡單來說，影響有限，屬於在一般投資時都應該考慮在內的市場波動。2.星期三公布的上個月聯準會會議記錄拯救市場不至於因俄烏衝突下跌，值得注意的是會議記錄本身並沒有明顯的正面消息，但僅是沒有更負面的消息就足以讓市場上漲:例如沒有特別提到三月會升息兩碼、沒有提到考慮引發經濟衰退以控制通貨膨脹。
3.Google搜尋記錄顯示散戶對於股票市場的興趣降低，某種程度上不是壞事，長期投資才是達成投資目標最穩健的方法。看到別人賺錢就進場容易導致自己虧錢出場，通常還會再立下重誓從此不再碰股票，直到又看到別人在股市賺錢覺得很容易為止。
【疫情更新】
美國疫情持續緩解，每日新增確診及死亡人數皆自高峰下降。加州將視Covid為可控制的風險，並著手制訂與疫情共存的計畫。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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