財經零距離 – 2/25/2022

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: February 25th, 202211 min readViews: 24422
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【市場更新】

1.這幾天的市場依然受俄烏衝突影響,當新聞顯示衝突升高時股市就下跌,如果顯示還有外交斡旋的空間,市場就會比較穩定。本周標普500以及道瓊工業指數比起歷史的收盤高點下跌超過10%,技術上被定義為步入修正階段,而納斯達克綜合指數則是累計下跌20%,進入熊市。

  • 進早在俄烏衝突加劇之前我們已經提過,美國股市在上一波反彈失敗後可能會測試一月的低點,而10%的修正其實也很常見,統計指出現在是從1980年以來第33次下跌超過10%的情況。所以我們還是建議觀眾朋友不要太過恐慌,目前股市在跌深後已經開始反彈,但未來的波動可預期依然會隨俄烏衝突加劇。我們在上週股動財富節目以及財經零距離文章中有說明俄烏衝突對美國股市的可能影響,歡迎觀眾朋友前去閱讀收看。(https://youtu.be/pVkZGWRyWt0)
  • 雖然在整體市場方向上無需過度恐慌,但戰爭本身以及其他事件依然對提高市場的波動或是民眾的警張程度,例如說俄國可能對西方國家的制裁採取網路攻擊報復,極有可能波及民間企業。而俄烏同時是原物料出口大國,可能讓原本因供應鍊問題緊張的通貨膨脹雪上加霜,但未必造成長期影響。

2.有沒有公債能夠對抗通貨膨脹呢?通貨膨脹保值債券(TIPS)能作到,但是不是無腦買進都能賺錢?請見本週的股動財富 https://youtu.be/qp4JldEEl7g

3.受俄烏衝突的影響,許多人開始預期聯準會三月升息0.5%的機率大幅降低,但還是有可能升息0.25%。

【疫情更新】

香港為對抗疫情採取更嚴格的管控措施。美國CDC取消室內口罩規定。英國打算取消所有針對疫情的管控措施。

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