財經零距離 – 2/3/2023

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: February 3rd, 202311.1 min readViews: 28280
Evelle Dai
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【市場更新】

1. 週三聯準會升息0.25%,與市場預期一致。至於市場更關心的未來政策方向,聯準會主席Jerome Powell表示通貨膨脹的問題有所改善,但仍然沒有鬆口今年會降息,市場決定相信前半段,但認為聯準會在吹牛,今年一定會降息,因此帶動了週三的市場大漲。

  • 在聯準會公布升息前,已經有分析師認為市場對聯準會的未來方向過度樂觀,但在公布後市場也是只選擇自己想聽的來解讀聯Jerome Powell的發言,而依過往的經驗,市場過度樂觀/貪婪的情緒終究會消退。
  • 再重複一次,我們與市場一樣認為聯準會今年會降息,但過去聯準會降息從來不能阻止經濟衰退的發生以及伴隨的股市下跌,這是我們遠較市場謹慎的理由。

2. 幾大科技龍頭股公布上季的獲利及未來展望,Meta,也就是臉書在週三盤後公布的上季營運數據其實不盡理想,但因為未來展望樂觀再加上$400億的庫藏股計畫,隔日上漲24%,也持續帶動股市上漲。週四盤後Apple、Amazon、Alphabet,也就是Google的母公司發布的獲利數字都不理想。科技業的營運數字不理想反映全球需求下跌,暗示經濟活動的確已經開始趨緩。但週五的市場走勢卻讓人感覺不到這樣的氣氛…

3. 週五開盤前公布一月的就業報告超乎預期的強勁,新增非農就業人口超過500,000,遠超過分析師預期的188,000,而且失業率再創新低來到3.4%。科技業獲利不理想再加上強勁的就業報告可能讓聯準會無法放緩升息的腳步,周五開盤時股市大幅下跌,但之後開始反彈,標普500甚至一度較前日上漲,雖然最後仍以下跌作收,但市場樂觀的心態令人印象深刻。

  • 就業報告雖然強勁,但就業數據一向是落後指標,對預測未來經濟活動的方向不大。

4. 總結上面三個事件,我們可以看出雖然市場極度地樂觀,不管好消息或壞消息都能正面解讀,但基本面方面經濟活動開始趨緩。在市場目前接近超買的情況下,這一波從去年年底的反彈並不值得加碼操作。另外這一波反彈中,以科技成長股為代表的Nasdaq指數表現明顯優異於以傳統價值股為主的道瓊工業指數,反轉了2022年的趨勢,但我們預期這波成長股優於價值股的走勢也即將告一段落,在2022年持有成長股遭受損失、目前有部分獲利的投資人可以考慮見好就收。

美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗,專業的六大管理板塊,橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市,是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡,讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。

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