財經零距離 – 2/4/2022
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【市場更新】
1. 在週三之前，全球股市創下2020年11月以來最佳的連續四天的表現，除了之前提到的短期超賣引發的反彈之外，企業公布的上一季營運數據亮眼，再加上俄羅斯表示願意以外交手段解決烏克蘭問題，這些正面消息都有助於市場上漲。但隨著週四臉書母公司Meta Platforms (FB)公布的未來營收展望不如預期，FB自身股價下跌26.4%，也帶動標普500下跌2.4%。
- 對於市場的前景我們維持之前的看法，目前的反彈有可能在這一、兩個星期結束，之後有可能會再測之試前的低點。未來有些消息有可能會提高市場的波動幅度，例如雖然企業上一季的獲利數據很亮眼，但在未來展望上，沒有企業對未來一季的營收展望超過市場預期，在未來一季的獲利展望方面也只有15%的企業公布數據超過市場預期。
- 雖然短期市場的波動難免，長期我們還是看好以美國為首的全球金融市場，所以觀眾朋友還是可以優先考慮將過度依賴未來成長前景的股票出售，調整成較防禦型的資產配置。
2. 雖然白宮已事先就週五的就業報告打預防針，強調因為採集數據時正是Omicron的高峰，數字可能不會十分理想;但數據大體上並不差，即使在Omicron的影響下依然新增467,000就業人口，失業率則因較多的民眾重新回到就業市場而由3.9%微升至4%。
- 至於該報告對聯準會升息的影響，關鍵的兩項數據背道而馳: 參與率提高顯示更多的民眾回到就業市場，代表未來勞工供給可能逐漸穩定。但同時薪資上漲的既快又普及，可能進一步推動物價上漲。如果勞工供給持續穩定且能抑制薪資上漲的速度，在物價能進一步控制的情況下，或許聯準會不至於快速升息。
3. 市場下跌對某些前景不錯的產業提供了好的進場時點，工業型的不動產投資信託(REIT, Real Estate Investment Trust)就是一例，請參考本週的股動財富影片(https://youtu.be/N2iBQchYaaw)
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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