財經零距離 – 3/05/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週三大指數震盪，納斯達克綜合指數自2/12高點至本週最低點下跌超過10%。雖然媒體持續以利率走升解釋市場為何下跌，但獲利了結也占了相當大的成分。十年期公債利率已回升至疫情前水準。(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 技術分析來看，短線上利率及股票市場已經穩定，股票市場未來一週跌破週四低點的機率不高。
2. 調查顯示在去年疫情後進入股市的散戶有較高的比例將之前紓困方案發放的現金用於投資、更依賴社群網站作為資訊來源、而且利用槓桿的比率遠高於較有經驗的投資人。(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 這幾項要素有助於疫情至今散戶績效超越大盤甚至專業經理人…
- …但這也可能在市場下跌時加大震盪的幅度及拉長再創新高的時間，我們可以試想一個假設的情況:
- 過去一段時間，新手散戶用紓困方案支票進場，更樂於嘗試大波動的投資(跟買樂透一樣，賺了很好，虧了反正不是我的錢/樂透成本低)。
- 這筆錢過去一年在高槓桿及社群網站拉抬下已經滾成了一筆相當大的金額，部分散戶甚至辭去工作，全職投資，”追求財務獨立”。
- 如果市場下跌，原本放大獲利的槓桿會反向放大損失，習慣賺錢的散戶會急切地在社群網站上尋求溫暖，去年三月的經驗會讓很多人相信市場會快速反彈。
- 但因為市場極度樂觀，而且幾乎所有看空的人在過去一段期間都不敢發聲，在市場一面倒的情況下，很難複製去年散戶瘋狂進場的經驗，也可能會影響市場回升的速度。此外，去年散戶進場部分因為其他賭博的場所都因疫情關閉，但現在股市已經不是唯一可以開放賭博的地方。
- 對市場失望的散戶暫時離場，社群網站放大負面消息，進一步將拉長市場回升的時間。
- 提醒大家，美國股市之前大跌後都能再創新高(像中國及日本股市就還沒能證明這一點)，散戶、槓桿及社群網站有可能會拉長「全球」股市回復前高的時間，但美股以長期來看還是相對比較穩定的市場。
3. Hertz股價在最新的重整方案出爐後大跌，原因為股東在重整之後可能一毛錢都拿不回來，名副其實的血本無歸。
- 許多人在去年投資Hertz的時候都相信Hertz這麼知名的公司，至少品牌也值不少錢，就算申請破產還是值得投資，但忽略了即使公司有價值，股東前面還有很多債權人等著優先分配。再次顯示了不了解公司基本面，跟風投資飆股的風險。
【疫情更新】
1. 疫情改善激勵美國各州放寬管制疫情的限制，德州准許所有商業正常營業並取消強制戴口罩的規定。
2. 美國政府預期在五月前將有足夠的疫苗供所有美國人施打，較原本預期提早兩個月。
【救市措施】
• 眾議院通過的紓困法案已送交參議院，最早將於本週末投票，大部分的議員希望新法案能在3/14聯邦的失業福利用罊前通過。目前已知參議院的版本將提高發放$1,400的門檻，預計排除一千兩百萬人領取紓困方案現金。此外，每週$400的失業補助也將減為$300，但會延長發放時間。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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