財經零距離 – 3/10/2023
Evelle Dai
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【市場更新】
1. 本週的前半週市場集中關注聯準會主席Jerome Powell在國會的聽證會，如果你只注意市場表現的話，你可能會覺得Jerome Powell是不是釋出前所未見的鷹派發言，市場預期聯準會將持續多次升息，標普500週二重挫1.5%，二年期公債突破5%，創下2007年以來最高水準。但實際上Jerome Powell只是重複之前大多數聯準會官員的內容，甚至直接挑明三月升息幅度還未決定，而且之後的升息幅度也是依據每次會議的狀況決定，並沒有過度的激進。市場反應如此劇烈還是因為上週週四、週五的反彈太過強勁的技術面問題。
2. 雖然如此，聯準會升息下出現了第一個受害者，以服務科技業特別是新創公司為主的矽谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)於週五被FDIC(聯邦存款保險公司)接管，接管的存款金額高達$1750億美元，是2008金融危機以來最大被接管的銀行。
- 聯準會升息造成的利率倒掛導致銀行經營困難: 原本銀行的經營模式是將短期的存款轉化為長期的放款，而通常長期利率高於短期利率，銀行可以賺取利差。但因為聯準會大幅升息造成利率倒掛，銀行本身經營難度提高，而且矽谷銀行主要往來的新創公司在過去一段時間也遭受沈重的打擊，導致矽谷銀行的存款金額減少。矽谷銀行為了調整資金結構，被迫出售因為升息而價格下跌的債券，認列了$18億美元的損失，而這個消息讓許多新創公司進一步決定將存款由矽谷銀行撤出。最後在出售債券的消息傳出不到兩天內，矽谷銀行就被接管。
- 未必會有全面性金融風暴，但區域型銀行可能受影響，超過存保上限的存款可考慮分散風險: 雖然這個消息聽起來很震驚，但是還是建議大家不要過度恐慌。至於銀行存款方面，我們認為未必會引發全面性的金融市場波動，但區域型銀行受影響的機率較大。如果在銀行有超過$250,000存保上限的情況，可以考慮轉放在短天期的美國公債，一樣是美國政府作擔保，而且沒有金額上限。或者可以考慮分散風險到多家銀行，如果覺得開很多帳戶很麻煩，也有program可以只開一個帳戶，但是將存款分散到不同的銀行，有的program甚至可以提供到$2500萬美金的FDIC保護。建議大家跟自己的理財顧問討論降低風險的方案。
- 在市場方面，我們還是建議反彈是好賣點，可以在反彈的時候調整到比較防禦型的投資組合。
【疫情更新】
- 隨著疫情趨緩，美國可能放寬對來自中國旅客的檢測要求。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
今天就請聯繫泛宇當地經紀人 或電 888-831-8868
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