財經零距離 – 3/11/2022
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【市場更新】
1.羅素2000及納斯達克自高點下跌20%，進入熊市。但2/24當日的低點依然扮演了一個強力的支撐，另外一方面，雖然美國宣布將禁止特定國家的原油輸入，但市場並沒有負面的反應，除了因為之前許多私人企業已經自發性的停止進口原油外，也反應市場已經考慮這個負面消息。簡單來說，對於戰爭本身對市場的影響，我們並不過度擔心。
- 至於一連串經濟制裁造成物價更進一步的上漲，也讓許多人擔心經濟成長是否會受到影響，進而引發停滯性通膨，也就是說經濟衰退但同時物價居高不下的情況。就目前的情況來看，我們認為美國的經濟成長並不需要過度憂慮。關於未來是否會有經濟衰退，我們現在依然在關注美國10年期及2年期公債的利差，這個利差在過去六次經濟衰退之前都發生反轉，也就是短天期的公債利率反而高於長天期的利率。而目前這個利差已經從今年年初的0.9%降低至0.23%，一樣是屬於關心但不用過度擔心的範圍。
2.美國油價上漲至30年新高。許多人認為油價上漲會造成通貨膨脹，但這只說明了一半的狀況，去年及之前的振興經濟方案讓消費者的可支配所得大幅增加，特別是對原本所得較低的家庭來說幫助更大，這也讓美國民眾的消費力大增，部分造成了物價上漲(物價上漲主要還是疫情、供應鍊的需求面造成，但需求面不降反增也是事實)。在油價上漲後，原本可以用作非必需消費的支出將會移轉到油料支出，將造成需求降低，可能部分緩和油價上漲的物價上漲壓力。現在經濟及金融市場內的關係錯綜複雜，單一因果關係的推論往往與實際情況差之甚遠，更不用說市場參與者在事件發生後的調整、因應措施。這也是為何我們一向不鼓勵以少數經濟事件作為進場、出場的依據，而是建議以完整資產配置以因應各種可能情況。
3.上週提到的俄羅斯公債違約問題持續受到市場關注，如果俄羅斯無力或無意願支付利息予持有外幣計價公債的外國人，最快4/15就有可能發生違約事件。
- 指出這類事件的目的並不是告訴大家4/15之前不要投資: 如果以這種標準來評估，那一輩子都找不到適合投資的時機，就算市場真的平靜無波，新聞記者也會努力找新聞填滿版面。重點在於事先了解事件發生的可能性並作好準備，不要在事件發生時受情緒影響作出錯誤的判斷。還是要強調這並不是註定會發生的事件。
【疫情更新】
中國新增確診人數創兩個月以來新高。夏威夷成為美國最後一個取消全面戴口罩規定的州。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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