財經零距離 – 3/12/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 與上週預期相符，本週的利率及股票市場趨於穩定，標普500及道瓊工業指數再創新高。
- 過去幾週散戶持續買進，平均單週買進金額超過去年的40%，有助於短期穩定市場，但一旦散戶決定長期撤離市場，將加大市場震盪的幅度。(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 如果自二月中以來的市場震盪讓你覺得不太舒服的話，應該把握這個機會調整投資組合。切記，如果你沒有預測到二月中開始的市場調整及本週的反彈，不要寄望你可以預測下次的市場向下修正。
2. 美元本週升值，除了我們在年初時提到的在市場波動時，投資人傾向持有穩定的美元外，目前美國利率走升也提高美元的吸引力，吸引更多熱錢進入美國。
- 雖然美元上漲，但以之前市場極度看空的局勢來看，過去經驗顯示未來一年美元可望依然維持強勢。另外，美元看的是長期利率的發展，通常是對未來18-24個月的預期，短期利率穩定對未來一年的美元走勢影響不大。
- 對原本有心轉換美元的人，在股票市場穩定、美元小幅回跌的現在，是不錯的中長期進場時點。
3. 部分研究機構預期今年美國對全球經濟成長貢獻將超過中國，是2005年來首見。
- 再次強調分散投資組合及風險的重要性，美國絕對是投資時不應忽視的市場: 許多人在去年都認為中國疫情控制的比美國好，所以中國的經濟發展及市場表現也會超過美國。但美國不但市場表現搶眼(上漲是事實，至於上漲的幅度合不合理是另一個話題)，在疫苗大規模施打後經濟成長也開始加速，前文提到的美元走勢也配合長期的布局時機。
4. 在通過紓困方案後，參議院的民主黨議員目標轉向金額$2兆的基礎建設法案，該法案必需得到至少十名共和黨參議員的支持才有通過的可能。
【疫情更新】
- 美國加快取得及施打疫苗速度，部分媒體預期在7/4國慶日前，美國可達到集體免疫。(Source: The Daily Shot)
【救市措施】
- 新一波的紓困方案經參眾議院投票及總統簽字通過。
- 與之前多次調查結果相符，最新調查顯示75%的民眾拿到錢後會存起來、購買必需品、支付帳單及還債，僅有5%的民眾會將錢花在非必需品上，再次顯示紓困方案必要，但沒有振興經濟的效果。
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