財經零距離 – 3/17/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 矽谷銀行被接管的事件”本身”逐漸平息，政府最後決定存款超過FDIC上限$250,000的存戶也可以拿回全數的存款，另外聯準會也推動了新的計畫以幫助銀行業(Bank Term Funding Program)，讓銀行可以用債券的票面金額向聯準會融資，而不用像矽谷銀行一樣被迫出售債券實現損失，顯示了政府企圖穩定金融市場的決心。
- 聯準會大幅升息可能性降低: 許多人將矽谷銀行失敗的矛頭指向聯準會快速升息的政策，再加上市場對整體銀行業的疑慮並未完全消失，分析師已經不預期未來聯準會會持續大幅升息，市場已預期下週聯準會升息的幅度比較有可能是0.25%，甚至有可能不會升息。週二公布的消費者物價指數與市場預期一致也讓市場更堅定聯準會將放寬貨幣政策的看法，也帶動週二的市場大漲。
2. 週三到週五瑞士信貸及First Republic Bank的消息帶動全球股市上下震盪: 週三時上述兩家銀行的負面消息帶動市場大跌。週四時此兩家銀行分別得到不同的資金挹注，股市隨之大漲，但週五市場又開始產生疑慮。
- 股市通常不會在第一次的救市措施時就迅速穩定: 我們無法預期特定銀行是否會被接管或是否一定會有系統性風暴，但歷史上股市通常不會在第一次的救市措施就穩定。救市的新聞帶動股市大漲，之後又恢復下跌，重複數次是常見的情形。所以我們預期短期內市場依然會持續較大幅度的波動，反彈是好賣點。
- 聯準會開始降息時通常不是市場底部: 聯準會在今年開始降息的機率大增，而且一定會有人將聯準會降息視為利多消息，市場可能出現強勁的反彈，但過去的數據顯示聯準會開始降息時通常不是市場底部，所以還是建議不要過度積極地操作。
- 短期公債利率有望逐漸走低，可考慮進場鎖定利率: 至於公債方面，短期公債利率略有下降，但仍維持在4.5%以上的水準，依然可以無風險地提供具吸引力的報酬，而且由於市場動盪、預期聯準會暫緩升息，未來利率可能逐步降低，之前抱持觀望態度的讀者可以考慮採取行動。
- 區域性銀行可能被迫維持高利率，必需注意潛在風險: 在矽谷銀行被接管之後，區域性銀行被迫維持高利率以吸收存款，只要注意存戶的存款在$250,000FDIC保險範圍內，而且能接受在接管程序完成幾天內無法提領的不便，高利率對大部分的人是好消息。
- 某些Cash Program可協助存戶分散風險: 鑒於矽谷銀行和Signature Bank最近的關閉，TransGlobal Advisory為家庭、企業和其他機構提供市場領先的解決方案，特別是當您的存款超過單一銀行250,000美元FDIC限制時。Cantor Fitzgerald Insured Cash Program包含900家銀行，存戶存款會分散到不同銀行，而且客戶可要求避開某些已有存款或不喜歡的銀行，以確保在每個銀行都可享受$250,000上限的FDIC保護(e.g.100萬至少放到四個以上銀行)，提供每個稅號最高2500萬美元的FDIC保護、100％的隔日流動性和具競爭力的回報（目前對存款在100萬美元以下的部分為3.85％APY，對存款在100萬美元至2500萬美元之間的部分為3.35％APY）。如果您有興趣了解更多信息，請與我們聯繫。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
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