財經零距離 – 3/18/2022
admin
SHARE
【市場更新】
1.眾所矚目的升息在聯準會宣布升息0.25%並且預期今年將升息七次(或是再升息六次)後平靜落幕。結果與市場預期相符，所以市場也是正面看待這個在預期之中的升息計畫。升息對我們的日常有以下可能的影響：
- 房貸利率升高：美國30年期房貸利率與10年期公債利率走勢息息相關，
在之前市場已預期聯準會將升息的情況下，房貸利率與10年期公債利率持續上升，可以說都創下了2019年下半年、也是疫情以來的新高。 - 衍生問題 – 是否該趁現在cash out，拿錢來投資？這取決於投資項目本身的報酬及風險，如果投資項目本身風險太高，有可能演變為無力負擔額外利息及本金的狀況。如果有較安全的投資提供較高的報酬足以提供支付完利息後的超額報酬，那自然是正確的投資選擇。
- 存款利息未必增加：許多人都在抱怨銀行給的利息微不足道，之前大家都在預期升息的時候存款利率不提高，現在聯準會確定升息，存款利率是不是總該提高了?恐怕還是不很樂觀，主要的問題是銀行現在不缺存款，而且並沒有很積極放款的意願。在這種情況下，銀行缺乏誘因提高利息吸收存款。一心期待存款利率提高的民眾恐怕又要失望了。
- 股市影響未知：幾年之前許多分析師說只要聯準會不緊縮銀根，對股市都很樂觀。等到聯準會要升息了，又拿出一堆研究佐證升息時頭一年股市會上漲。這些研究都有參考價值，不過我們希望從另一個角度來分析。從圖中可以看出，升息與股市表現沒有直接的關係。升息最值得關注的還是對經濟產生的可能影響，「如果」升息導致經濟衰退，股市作為領先指標將會率先反應，10年期及2年期公債利率反轉一樣是經濟衰退的領先指標，也是我們一直關注該指標的原因。
在之前市場已預期聯準會將升息的情況下，房貸利率與10年期公債利率持續上升，可以說都創下了2019年下半年、也是疫情以來的新高。
。升息最值得關注的還是對經濟產生的可能影響，「如果」升息導致經濟衰退，股市作為領先指標將會率先反應，10年期及2年期公債利率反轉一樣是經濟衰退的領先指標，也是我們一直關注該指標的原因。2.聯準會預計升息七次不代表一定會升息七次，有可能隨時依據市場及經濟狀況調整: 在聯準會宣布升息的美國時間當天晚上，英國央行也宣布升息，但暗示將暫緩未來的升息動作，聯準會是否有可能比照辦理，值得關注。
3.俄羅斯以被凍結的外匯存底支付以外幣計價的公債利息，新聞報導該款項已經美國官方機構核准放行，立即的違約風險已降低。信用評等機構惠譽於之前說明如果該公債利息改以盧布支付視同違約。
4.在中國政府宣布將要穩定股票市場以及提出振興經濟方案後，中國股市開始止跌。
【疫情更新】
中國確診病例增加，深圳、上海、長春封城，全球供應鍊是否能恢復常態再度出現問號。德國確診病例再創新高。美國本地航空旅遊支出回復疫情前水準。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
Disclosure TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where TransGlobal Advisory, LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by TransGlobal Advisory, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. “Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors or our services. Please be aware that while we monitor comments and “likes” left on this page, we do not endorse or necessarily share the same opinions expressed by site users. While we appreciate your comments and feedback please be aware that any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please honor our request to limit your posts to industry-related educational information and comments. Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client’s evaluation. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. TransGlobal Advisory, LLC may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.
