財經零距離 – 3/19/2021
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【市場更新】
1. 本週標普500及道瓊工業指數迭創新高，但納斯達克綜合指數的反彈看來欲振乏力。市場普遍相信目前是版塊輪動。但若納斯達克綜合指數/科技股遲遲沒有表現，要小心納斯達克之前領漲、未來可能領跌的風險。
2. 聯準會聯邦公開市場委員會公布的會議紀錄並未因市場對經濟成長的樂觀預期及對通貨膨脹的擔憂改變立場，將維持零利率政策以及持續每月買入債券的金額以持續支撐經濟直到完全復甦。
- 大部分的委員會委員預期2023年才會開始升息。(Source: The Daily Shot)
- 但公債利率反而大幅走升，10年期公債利率最高上升至1.75%，創下2020年1月以來新高，自去年8月低點0.51%已上升1.24%。
- 為何聯準會未計畫升息，但市場利率走升?部分原因是市場認為在未升息的情況下，經濟將持續成長並帶動通貨膨脹，所以市場提前反應。
- 我們的看法依然維持利率上升及通貨膨脹是短期現象，長期通貨膨脹的風險不高，如果想規避通貨膨脹的風險，黃金目前的價格是不錯的進場時機，可以注意短期拉回的機會。
3. 拜登總統規劃自1993年以來首次的加稅，以作為未來基礎建設方案的財源。細節尚未公布，但一般相信公司所得稅將由21%上升至28%，針對高收入者將提高所得稅邊際稅率及資本利得稅。參議員華倫建議對淨資產超過五千萬美金的富人財產直接加徵2%的財富稅，尚未確定新政府是否將接受此提案。財政部長葉倫強調控制財政赤字的重要。
- 共和黨反對加稅，但民主黨評估認為雙方有可能妥協後達成共識，如公司所得稅可能最後雙方同意在25%~26%之間。
- 這則新聞並未對市場帶來任何衝擊，如果市場早已將此負面消息與其他正面新聞綜合反應，當然是好事。但如果市場只是單純認為加稅不會發生，或是忽視其對公司獲利的負面影響，以及對高收入者持有股票的意願，有可能在未來對市場產生「意外」的衝擊。
4. 相較去年的紓困支票，有更高比例的民眾打算將這次拿到的$1,400投入股票市場。如果未來沒有更多的好消息支撐目前極度樂觀的市場，這波新的熱錢將是短期內最後一股推動市場的力量。(Source: The Daily Shot)
【疫情更新】
- 美國已完成施打百萬疫苗的目標，並將尚未經FDA核准的AstraZeneca疫苗轉交加拿大及墨西哥。
圖片來源：網絡，版權歸原作者
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