財經零距離 – 3/26/2021

Categories: 家族辦公室, 金融時事Published On: March 26th, 202112 min readViews: 16717
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【市場更新】

1. 本週標普500及道瓊工業指數上漲,但納斯達克綜合指數沒有明顯起色,在該指數未創新高的情況下,科技股領跌的可能性升高。

2. Non Fungible Token (NFT)是最近很火紅的話題,簡單來說NFT是將數位貨幣的防偽技術使用在數位媒體上,但與一般數位貨幣的不同是不可替代性 – 你可以用Bitcoin A取代Bitcoin B,但你找不到另一個NFT來取代已存在的這個NFT。不久前一個NFT的綜合圖檔拍賣價格接近$7千萬美元,是史上第四高的藝術拍賣金額。

  • 極端離譜的價格背後顯示的是熱錢過多,有閒錢的人四處尋找投資/投機標的,典型的牛市末期症狀。連賣出上述NFT的藝術家都認為這是泡沫,而泡沫遲早會破滅。過去的經驗是,泡沫破滅不會僅限於該資產(e.g. NFT),而是對包括股票在內的金融市場產生影響,在衝擊投資人信心下可能引發經濟衰退。
  • 這股熱潮同時也是包括拍賣公司、畫廊以及收藏家共同炒作以活絡藝術拍賣之下的產物,可以類比成之前Reddit論壇創造出Game Stop、金融界「創造」金磚四國這個名詞以吸引投資人。
  • NFT或許會繼續存在,但通常在這波熱潮中能賺到錢的都是收手續費的人(e.g. 拍賣公司、推銷金磚四國投資機會的理財專員)或是提早進場等出貨的人。一般投資人最好是將重點放在長期趨勢,不要受此類短期雜音影響。

3. 部分顯示市場過熱的指標開始趨緩,如果趨勢持續,代表市場可能逐漸在小幅震盪間達到穩定。相對地,如果投資人在稍作休息後馬上轉趨樂觀,雖然在短期內能繼續推動市場,但恐怕將市場推向更極端的估值。

  • 美股選擇權買權交易量並未因新紓困金的發放而增加。(Source: The Daily Shot)

  • 過去上市第一天即上漲的特殊目的併購公司(SPAC)股票,在本週幾乎都以下跌作收。(Source: The Daily Shot)

4. 首次申請失業救濟人數降至疫情以來新低,顯示疫情控制生效,美國經濟持續復甦。(Source: The Daily Shot)


5. 中國滬深300指數在上個月創下13年新高後下跌15%,主因市場擔心緊縮的貨幣政策取代了對經濟復甦的樂觀態度。

  • 這也是為什麼我們即使在疫苗普遍施打、美國經濟復甦強勁下對市場依然抱持著謹慎的態度,當市場過度樂觀時,任何變動都有可能被負面解讀。

6. 拜登政府將原定$1.9兆美元的基礎建設計畫上調至$4兆,內容包括對抗氣候變遷、削除經濟不平等及強化美國經濟等長期目標,並將於下週公布細節,預期將對企業及高所得者加稅作為財源。市場依然未對加稅的消息作出太大反應,但高盛評估對企業加稅將使標普500指數整體的每股盈餘在2022年減少9%。(Source: The Daily Shot)

【疫情更新】

1. 德國緊急取消原本預計施行的封鎖限制,雖然解除了短期對經濟的衝擊,但對中長期的疫情控制及經濟復甦恐怕有不利的影響。

2. 有超過40州表示可以達到拜登政府的目標,於5/1前有足夠疫苗供應美國成年人施打。拜登也將原本上任100天內施打1億劑疫苗的目標上調至2億劑。但同時美國部分州在過去兩週疫情有升溫趨勢,部分議員建議放慢經濟重開放速度。

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