財經零距離 – 3/27/2023
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【市場更新】
1. 原本本週最受矚目的議題是週三聯準會升息的決定，聯準會決定升息0.25%，與市場預期一致，雖然聯準會主席Jerome Powell在記者會上仍然並未鬆口今年會降息，但利率市場預期於五月召開的下一次聯準會會議升息機率大減，並預期之後可能降息。
- 通常我們會與市場持相反意見，但在這件事情上我們看法與市場一致，在經濟衰退的壓力下，聯準會將不得不降息。好消息是經濟衰退通常會帶動物價下跌，所以停滯性通膨的機率依然極低。
- 但聯準會開始降息不是股市底部，所以還是要注意風險控管。
2. 即使聯準會沒有給大家太多負面的驚喜，但市場在週三先盛後衰，主要的原因是財政部長Yellen並未鬆口要加強對銀行存戶的保護，也就是擴大存保的範圍，這也導致金融股帶動了整體市場的下跌。週四Yellen突然轉向說政府會盡一切努力保障存戶的權益帶動市場上漲，但德意志銀行的負面消息依然導致週五開盤下跌。
- 最近有許多中小型銀行為吸收存款提高利率，在不超過存保$250,000範圍內也是不錯的選擇，但要注意在最壞被存保接管的情況下，可能有幾天不能動用這筆資金，所以要注意其他資產的流動性。
- 如果超過存保上限的部分可以考慮美國短期的公債或是一些program將存款分散到不同的銀行，一樣可以享受高利，同時又有高流動性及更高金額的保護。
3. 瑞士信貸被UBS收購，瑞士信貸股東雖然損失慘重，但並不是血本無歸。而原本預期比股份更有保障的AT1債券反而歸零，引發市場的軒然大波。
- AT1 (Additional Tier 1)債券又稱為CoCo (Contingent Covertibles)是指發行時是債券，但當”特定事件”發生時可以轉換為股本，與原本的股份一起吸收銀行損失，由於風險較一般債券高，所以通常收益較高，通常是機構投資人才會投資的標的。
- 市場主要爭議點在於為何AT1的投資人會比股東先歸零，不符資本市場的常理，已有投資人準備進行跨國訴訟。
- 瑞士的金管機關FINMA在3月23日給出解釋，說明AT1歸零符合當時的發行條件: 當瑞士信貸接受特別的政府支持時，AT1債券的價值將歸零，由於3月19日瑞士央行提供瑞士信貸特殊貸款，該條件已被滿足，FINMA指示瑞士信貸打消AT1債券價值。
- 法律爭議不會一時半刻塵埃落定，但即使是機構投資人都有未充分了解投資條件的時候，這也是為什麼我們建議大家不要投資自己不熟悉的投資工具。
- 另外一個要提醒大家注意的是，每當有金融商品價值減損，市場總會謠言四起說XX金融機構踩雷，引起投資人的恐慌。建議大家平時投資時就分散風險，遇到有狀況時等待正式管道的資訊。雖然近期金融業消息頻傳，但其實還沒有超出過去經濟活動趨緩甚至經濟衰退的大框架，大家當然要注意自己資產的安全，但不要過度恐慌。
美國泛宇集團有超過30年的財務規劃與管理經驗，專業的六大管理板塊，橫跨地產、貸款、保險、投資、稅務服務、教育, 旗下5000+名合作獨立經紀人遍布全美各州與亞洲主要城市，是全美最大亞裔一站式全方位財富管理服務的標竿品牌。歡迎與泛宇聯絡，讓專業的團隊為您出謀劃策。
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